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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.09.21 14:44z 265 Lines 10702 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5079_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09-SEP.21
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PE1RRR<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 210909/1431Z 5079@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Thu, 09 Sep 2021 03:00:03 +0000
Thu, 09 Sep 2021 03:00:03 +0000
general
1
WW 492 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 090030Z - 090400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
830 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Maryland
Southeast Pennsylvania
Far northern Virginia
Eastern West Virginia Panhandle
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday night from 830 PM until Midnight EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Initial cluster developing across south-central
Pennsylvania should spread east, while additional storms may form
south into northern Virginia this evening. Damaging winds and a
brief tornado are the primary threats.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northeast of
Baltimore MD to 30 miles south southwest of Hagerstown MD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 491...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Grams
Read more
Thu, 09 Sep 2021 02:31:03 +0000
WW 491 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY PA 082355Z - 090400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
755 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far western Connecticut
Far western Massachusetts
Western to northern New Jersey
Southeast New York
Eastern Pennsylvania
* Effective this Wednesday night from 755 PM until Midnight EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Line segments will continue to push east from eastern
Pennsylvania into southwest New England this evening with a threat
for damaging winds and a tornado or two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northwest of
Pittsfield MA to 35 miles south southwest of Allentown PA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Grams
Read more
Thu, 09 Sep 2021 02:29:03 +0000
WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MRB TO
30 E HGR TO 10 ESE CXY.
ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-090340-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MDC003-005-013-015-021-025-027-031-033-510-090340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDELBALTIMORECARROLL
CECIL FREDERICKHARFORD
HOWARDMONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
Read more
Thu, 09 Sep 2021 02:31:03 +0000
WW 0491 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 491
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ABE TO
15 NW POU TO 5 N PSF.
ATTN...WFO...ALY...OKX...PHI...BGM...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 491
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NJC003-019-021-027-031-035-037-041-090340-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGENHUNTERDONMERCER
MORRISPASSAIC SOMERSET
SUSSEXWARREN
NYC071-079-087-090340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ORANGEPUTNAMROCKLAND
PAC011-017-029-077-089-091-095-090340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS BUCKSCHESTER
LEHIGHMONROEMONTGOMERY
Read more
Thu, 09 Sep 2021 02:29:03 +0000
MD 1721 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491...492... FOR NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1721
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0942 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021
Areas affected...Northern Middle Atlantic
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...492...
Valid 090242Z - 090445Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491, 492
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging winds are possible with squall line over the next
couple hours.
DISCUSSION...Well-defined squall line has matured and currently
extends from northern NJ-eastern PA-western MD-northern VA. Over the
last hour or so, a substantial north-south line segment evolved over
southern PA and this line has advanced into Berks County PA, with
some noted acceleration in the last half hour promoting a more
bow-shaped structure. It appears the greatest short-term wind threat
will be ahead of this convection as it advances across Berks County
toward northwestern NJ.
..Darrow.. 09/09/2021
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON38967802 39777677 40597601 41227424 40757408 40007517
38837709 38967802
Read more
Thu, 09 Sep 2021 02:43:04 +0000
MD 1720 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021
Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle into extreme
southern Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 090237Z - 090500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A brief tornado may accompany any stronger, sustained
storm that manages to form. However, the severe threat is expected
to be quite brief and localized, and a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Mindy has recently made landfall along
the FL panhandle coastline, with convective bands continuing to
pivot around the center within the northeast quadrant of the
cyclone. While a brief uptick in convective intensity was noted
earlier (including the possibility of a tornado in Wakulla County,
FL nearly 90 minutes ago), convection within the bands has more
recently waned in intensity. 02Z mesoanalysis shows up to 40 kts of
effective bulk shear within the northeast quadrant of Mindy, with
the TLH 0154Z VWP showing over 200 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH. However, the
TLH 00Z observed sounding depicted a meager buoyancy profile, with
under 900 J/kg SBCAPE and very little MLCAPE (given a relatively dry
surface-850 mb layer for a tropical cyclone ambient environment).
Given the aforementioned vertical shear profile, a robust, sustained
low-topped supercell would be capable of producing a tornado.
However, the overall severe threat is expected to be very sparse and
brief given the meager buoyancy, and a Tornado Watch issuance is not
currently anticipated.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 09/09/2021
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON29708454 30068476 30418483 30738460 30948425 31038373
30918331 30698302 30518291 30268293 29938295 29578312
29418343 29708454
Read more
Thu, 09 Sep 2021 02:38:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0836 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC...
CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN SUMMARY
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible into late
evening across parts of the the Northeast, with locally damaging
wind gusts the primary potential severe hazard.Otherwise, Tropical
Storm Mindy may be accompanied by some risk for a tornado or two
across parts of northern Florida and adjacent southern Georgia
tonight.
...01Z Outlook Update...
As a substantive short wave trough digs southeast of the Upper
Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley tonight, models indicate some
further amplification of mid-level troughing along a
positively-tilted to neutral axis, southeast of Hudson Bay through
areas near/west of the southern Appalachians.Stronger low-level
flow, associated with the primary surface cyclone migrating
north-northeastward to the east of James Bay, will continue to
develop northward across northern New England through eastern Quebec
and the Canadian Maritimes.However, a belt of moderate to strong,
cyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow is enhancing deep-layer shear,
near a narrow pre-frontal corridor of lingering weak to moderate
boundary-layer instability across western New England southward into
areas across and to the east of the northern Blue Ridge Mountains.
This may contribute to the maintenance of vigorous thunderstorm
development posing a risk for locally damaging wind gusts into late
evening.
Farther south, weaker mid-level troughing extends into the western
Gulf of Mexico, with Tropical Storm Mindy embedded within weak
southwesterly flow east of the mid-level trough axis.As the
low-level cyclonic circulation center migrates across the Florida
Big Bend through the southern Georgia/northern Florida state border
vicinity overnight, low-level shear may strengthen sufficiently to
support convection posing at least some risk for an isolated tornado
or two to its northeast and east.
..Kerr.. 09/09/2021
Read more
Thu, 09 Sep 2021 01:45:52 +0000
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