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LU9DCE > ALERT 21.03.19 09:32z 146 Lines 8288 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20328_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 21 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 190321/0927Z @:LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM #:20328 LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256
AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO...
...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are
possible over parts of northwestern to central New Mexico and
extreme southwestern Colorado this afternoon.
...Synopsis... A high-amplitude upper-air pattern will
prevail through this period, with a synoptic ridge moving slowly
eastward from the Rockies across the Great Plains. To its east,
a strong shortwave trough now over Lake Michigan and IL will dig
southeastward and strengthen, forming a closed 500-mb cyclone over
WV and VA by 00Z. This cyclone will phase somewhat with a weakening
perturbation now located over the Mid-South region, before pivoting
offshore and devolving to an open-wave trough late in the period.
West of the synoptic ridge, a negatively tilted synoptic-scale
trough is apparent in moisture- channel imagery, from a position
offshore of northern CA southeastward across much of CA to the
northern Baja/northwestern Sonora region. A closed cyclone should
evolve in this trough during the day, over the Sierra Nevada and
western Great Basin, with the associated 500-mb low located over
southeastern NV by 00Z. By 22/12Z, the low should pivot across
UT, while a basal shortwave trough crosses AZ. Minor shortwaves
will precede this feature, within the broad area of height falls
impinging on the southern Rockies.
At the surface, a low south of ILM is expected to reach northeastern
NC by the start of the period, then deepen and move across
the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England by 22/12Z. Associated
deep-layer lift, with the approach of the eastern shortwave troughs,
will contribute to thunder potential the first 2-3 hours of the
period over eastern NC. A low-level Pacific front -- initially
over parts of AZ and Baja -- will move slowly to western NM by 00Z,
then slowly cross northern/central NM overnight.
...NM, extreme southwestern CO... Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in a corridor
from just east of the Four Corners across northwestern to central
NM. For a period of roughly 3-4 hours during mid/late afternoon,
isolated large hail and severe gusts may occur.
Shots of large-scale DCVA/lift, related to shortwaves pivoting
around the rim of the mid/upper cyclone, will move over the low-level
frontal zone and across a narrow warm sector over the outlook area
this afternoon. In that sector, low-level theta-e advection and
diabatic surface heating, beneath a regime of midlevel cooling,
height falls and difluent cyclonic flow aloft, will contribute to an
increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment for thunderstorms.
Surface dew points should increase through the 30s and perhaps into
the low 40s F, enabling MLCAPE 400-800 J/kg. The buoyancy will
develop atop well-mixed subcloud layers supporting strong/locally
severe gusts, as well as maintenance of hail to the surface of the
high desert and mountains in the outlook area. Forecast soundings
suggest effective-shear magnitudes 45-50 kt are possible, supporting
at least transient supercell potential as well as organized multicell
bands and clusters.
Into south-central/southeastern NM and far west TX, potential
becomes more isolated and uncertain, given the presence of weaker
levels of deep-layer forcing, deep shear and low-level convergence.
Strong thunderstorms may develop over higher terrain of northern
Chihuahua and far west TX after 00Z. This activity would cross
over a stabilizing boundary layer across far west TX, but also,
a zone of elevated buoyancy and low-level moisture favorable for
convection through this evening. At this time the severe potential
appears too conditional and low-end to place the already marginal
outlook area farther southeastward.
..Edwards/Gleason.. 03/21/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across
the southern High Plains from Friday afternoon through early evening.
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially centered over Arizona
will migrate eastward through the southern Rockies and reach
the Texas Panhandle by 12Z Saturday. Downstream of this trough,
a ridge axis will extend from the central Plains southward toward
the Lower Mississippi River Valley, and another longer wave trough
will persist across the eastern CONUS.
At the surface, weak cyclogenesis will occur along the Colorado Front
Range along a weak lee trough that will extend southward toward the
Big Bend area of Texas. Meanwhile, surface ridging will persist
along an axis from Wisconsin southward toward the northeastern Gulf.
Between these two systems, a narrow corridor of low-level moistening
(characterized by 40s to mid-50s surface dewpoints) will commence
from the western Gulf north-northwestward to western Kansas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near
the lee trough during the afternoon and migrate east-northeastward,
reaching central portions of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight.
...Texas South Plains and eastern New Mexico northward to far
southeastern Colorado... Models indicate potential for clouds and
light to moderate precipitation through mid-day across the region,
which casts some doubt on subsequent surface-based destabilization
later in the afternoon. Nevertheless, cooling aloft and ascent
associated with a well-timed vorticity maximum ejecting from
northwestern New Mexico into central Colorado should provide impetus
for scattered thunderstorm development along the surface trough
during the afternoon hours - especially if surface heating can
occur as indicated by the Nam. 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE in tandem with
veering and strengthening wind profiles with height will support
organized storms, with an isolated risk for hail and damaging wind
gusts especially along banded/linear segments that can organize.
Given the narrow character of the moist axis and tendency for storms
to migrate away from the best low-level moisture profiles overnight,
any lingering severe risk is expected to wane after about 03Z as
convection migrates east of the I-27 corridor.
...Eastern Colorado... A more conditional risk for an isolated
tornado will develop in this region primarily during the afternoon.
Low-level wind fields will tend to be more backed east-northeast
of the surface low, and strengthening mid-level wind fields ahead
of the advancing wave will support strengthening vertical shear
supportive of updraft rotation. The lingering question across
this region revolves around the degree of moistening and subsequent
surface-based instability. Low tornado probabilities may be needed
in subsequent outlooks once these uncertainties are resolved.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Cook.. 03/21/2019
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Writing is easy; all you do is sit staring at the blank sheet of paper until
drops of blood form on your forehead.
-- Gene Fowler
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