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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.03.19 07:03z 155 Lines 8274 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20214_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 18 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190318/0701Z 20214@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145
PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across
much of the nation today through tonight.
...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific into North America will remain amplified through this
period, with an increasingly prominent center of higher heights
evolving within large-scale ridging, across the Vancouver Island
vicinity into the Canadian Rockies by early Tuesday. Downstream,
models indicate that larger-scale troughing will begin to shift east
of the northern and mid Atlantic Seaboard, but flow east of the
Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard will remain broadly confluent,
as a more zonal belt of westerlies, emanating from the southern
mid-latitude and subtropical Pacific, lingers across the northern
Mexican Plateau through the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula.
Beneath this regime, cool to cold, dry and/or stable conditions
associated with broad surface ridging appear likely to persist
across most areas east of the Rockies, while stable conditions also
prevail across much of the West.
...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Gulf of Mexico/Florida Peninsula...
Forcing for ascent associated with at least a couple of perturbations
within the southern mid-latitude and subtropical westerlies may
support convection and embedded thunderstorms along a stalled or
slow moving frontal zone extending across the Florida Peninsula
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. With the surface boundary
south of the Peninsula and Keys, the risk for thunderstorms across
Florida during this period appears negligible.
Weak elevated instability may linger to the cool side of the surface
front, as far northwest as portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley,
but it currently appears that any appreciable risk for thunderstorms
across Deep South Texas may diminish by 12Z this morning, as lift
associated with the lead perturbation shifts into the Gulf of Mexico.
...Southern Rockies into central Plains... A fairly vigorous short
wave trough is forecast to dig around the southeastern periphery
of the mid/upper high center, through much of the northern High
Plains by 12Z Tuesday. This may be preceded by a weaker impulse,
with associated cooling aloft combining with substantive boundary
layer heating forecast across the mountains of northwestern New
Mexico and southern Colorado, into the central High Plains, to
steepen lapse rates by late this afternoon. The development of
at least very weak CAPE appears possible, along with perhaps some
potential for convection capable of producing lightning across
the higher terrain. Convection may also attempt to develop or
spread off the higher terrain, in association with an area of
strengthening low-level warm advection, across parts of eastern
Colorado into Kansas this evening; but, the extent to which this
activity may become capable of producing lightning remains unclear,
due to generally limited moisture.
..Kerr/Karstens.. 03/18/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218
AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible over a portion
of the central and southern Rockies Tuesday afternoon and evening,
deep south Florida during the day, and the central California coast
late Tuesday night.
...Central through northern Rockies region...
A northern-stream shortwave trough will advance southeast through
the northern and central High Plains during the day, promoting
the southward advance of a cold front that should extend from the
upper MS Valley southwest into northern NM by Tuesday evening. Very
cold temperatures aloft accompanying the upper trough and diabatic
heating during the day will contribute to very steep lapse rates
and weak instability over the high terrain. This environment might
support a few thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening,
primarily within the evolving, weak post-frontal upslope regime
from southern CO into northern NM.
...South Florida...
A front will stall near or just south of the FL Keys Tuesday. A
low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward, along and north
of the front contributing to post-frontal ascent and development of
widespread rain showers. While equilibrium levels and instability
will generally remain unfavorable for thunderstorms, low-level
moisture and instability across deep south FL in closer proximity
to the frontal zone might remain sufficient for a few thunderstorms
within a broader area of showers.
...Central California coast...
A negative-tilt shortwave trough will move onto the central CA
coastal area later Tuesday night accompanied by cooling mid-level
temperatures, steepening mid-level lapse rates and weak instability.
Scattered showers will develop in association with this feature,
and the thermodynamic environment may become at least marginally
supportive of a few lightning strikes.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Dial.. 03/18/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A large-scale deep-layer trough located over the
eastern CONUS will slowly lift northeastward throughout the day,
while a weak mid-level short-wave trough develops on the back side
of this departing system over the northern Great Plains. Meanwhile,
a mid-level trough will begin approaching the West Coast but
should remain just offshore. Mid-level winds across the CONUS will
generally be light (< 50 kt) with exception to flow located in the
base of the departing East Coast trough, where mid-level winds will
exceed 60-70 kt.
At the surface, high pressure will remain the dominant weather
feature with light surface winds prevailing in most locations.
Sustained northwesterly winds over the Southeast, including portions
of Georgia and South Carolina, may approach 10-15 mph during the
afternoon while RH values fall into the 25-30% range. However, recent
precipitation in this region has yielded generally non-receptive
fuels and thus low fire-weather potential.
..Karstens.. 03/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A weak mid-level short-wave trough located over
the northern Great Plains will slowly move southward into the
central CONUS throughout the forecast period, while enhanced
northerly mid-level flow of 70+ kt enters in its wake. Farther
west, a mid-level trough will enter the West Coast bringing
enhanced mid-level flow approaching 50 kt to portions of Southern
California. At the surface, high pressure will continue to dominate
with light surface winds expected in most places, precluding the
need for any fire-weather highlights at this time.
..Karstens.. 03/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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