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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.01.21 23:30z 197 Lines 10705 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 126_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18 01
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<JE7YGF<XE1FH<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 210118/2301Z @:LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM #:126 [TORTUGUITAS] $:126_LU9DCE
From: LU9DCE@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM
To : ALERT@WW
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235
AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Non-severe thunderstorm development will be possible
across parts of the southern Plains from Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday night.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will retrograde southwestward
across southern California on Tuesday as zonal mid-level flow remains
from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface,
a cold front will advance southward across south-central and east
Texas. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence along
the front could be enough for isolated thunderstorm development
Tuesday afternoon, mainly in south-central Texas. Instability will
likely be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the
continental United States, thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday
or Tuesday night.
..Broyles.. 01/18/2021
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213
AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected to develop across
the continental United States Wednesday or Wednesday night.
...DISCUSSION... West-northwest mid-level flow is forecast across
much of the U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure is
forecast to be in place from the southern Plains eastward across
the Gulf Coast States. This will prevent moisture return limiting
the potential for thunderstorms across the continental United States
on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
..Broyles.. 01/18/2021
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... The
medium-range models move a shortwave trough across the Desert
Southwest on Thursday as zonal mid-level flow remains from the
southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorm development
will be possible on Thursday across parts of the western and central
Gulf Coast region along the northern edge of a moist airmass.
Instability is expected to be too weak for severe thunderstorm
development. The shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Gulf
Coast States on Friday. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the
northern part of the moist airmass which should be located from the
Texas Coastal Plain eastward to the Florida Panhandle. Instability
is again forecast to be weak suggesting severe thunderstorm potential
will be minimal.
...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... On Saturday, the medium-range
models move an upper-level ridge across the Mississippi Valley
as southwest mid-level flow becomes established from the Four
Corners region eastward into the Great Plains. The models are in
reasonable agreement on Sunday moving an upper-level trough across
the Intermountain West. Moisture return is forecast to take place
ahead of this system in parts of the southern Plains. Thunderstorm
development will be possible during the day on Sunday from Texas
northward into Oklahoma along an axis of instability. Although
a severe threat can not be ruled out, predictability remains
low for Sunday. On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast
to move into the Great Plains as a cold front advances into the
Arklatex. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and
ahead of the front across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley
during the day on Monday. If the forecasts verify, a severe threat
would be possible in areas that can heat up sufficiently ahead
of the front. However, predictability is low this far out in the
forecast period.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery reveals an upper-level low
propagating southward along the western U.S. that will continue to
deepen off the southern California coast over the next 48 hours. This
deepening low will augment the offshore pressure gradient that
will support strong, to potentially damaging winds. Across the
Southwest and southern High Plains, surface pressure falls along
the southern Rockies will help support breezy downslope winds that
could pose fire weather concerns for a region that has seen very
little precipitation in recent weeks.
...Southern California... Recent reports from the coastal ranges
of southern CA indicate that fuels remain very dry across the region
after several days of dry weather and little to no precipitation. The
deepening surface low off the southern CA coast will establish
a -6 to -8 mb LAX-DAG pressure gradient by late tonight/early
Tuesday. Sustained winds between 30-50 mph appear likely for
portions of Los Angeles, Ventura, and western Orange/southwest
San Bernardino counties. Increasing low to mid-level flow in
response to the deepening low will help support potentially
damaging wind gusts between 60-80 mph. Confidence in the wind
forecast remains high, but recent guidance continues to suggest that
cooling temperatures will yield borderline RH values in the 20-30%
range for most locations. Notable exceptions are the lower hills
of Ventura and Los Angeles counties where downslope warming/drying
should be maximized and result in RH values in the low teens. As
such, the highest potential for critical conditions remains in
this region, though the severity and duration of the threat is
conditional on maintaining reduced RH from this afternoon into the
overnight hours as winds strengthen. Periodic critical conditions
are possible elsewhere within the broader elevated risk area, but
will likely be confined to locations that typically see downslope
warming/drying under north/northeast wind regimes.
...Sacramento Valley... As with southern CA, northerly winds are
forecast to increase through the day and into Tuesday morning as the
upper-level (and surface low) deepen through the day. Although fuels
across the region are not as receptive as locations further south,
dry air advection will help RH values fall into the teens and low 20s
across the southwestern Sacramento valley Monday afternoon. Similar
RH reductions are expected for the northern Santa Lucia range early
Tuesday morning as downslope winds increase. The combination of
reduced RH and sustained 15-30 mph winds should support elevated
fire weather conditions, though the timing of when these conditions
occur may vary within the risk area.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Recent observations and
surface pressure analyses show a lee trough beginning to deepen
across eastern CO as flow aloft becomes more zonal. This trough
is forecast to deepen further as it shifts east/southeastward
through the day. In response, winds will likely reach into the
15-25 mph range for portions of far southeast AZ/southwest NM as
well as the higher elevation of southeast NM and the Trans Pecos
region of southwest TX. Relative humidity values in the teens are
expected, and minimal precipitation over the region has allowed fine
fuel moisture values to fall into the single digits. Elevated fire
weather concerns appear likely, but will be confined to the higher
elevation where downslope winds will be maximized (and ahead of an
attendant cold front for the NM/TX risk area).
..Moore.. 01/18/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...
...Synopsis... An upper-level low is expected to continue to deepen
off the southern California/Baja California coast through early
Tuesday before transitioning to a cut-off low late in the day. The
associated surface pressure gradient and offshore winds are forecast
to peak during the day Tuesday with strong to potentially damaging
winds likely. Although RH values will see slight improvements,
very dry conditions coupled with the strong winds and marginal RH
reductions will still pose a fire weather threat.
...The Southern California Coast... The LAX-DAG pressure gradient
is forecast to peak at around -8 mb during the late morning to early
afternoon hours Tuesday as the surface low to the south deepens and
a surface high across the northern Great Basin builds to around 1038
mb. Sustained offshore winds of 35-50 mph (with gusts up to 80 mph)
are likely for much of the forecast period. Persistent downslope
warming and drying along the lower coastal hills of southern CA
may allow for poor overnight RH recoveries and daytime RH values
in the teens. The fire weather threat (and potential for critical
conditions) appears greatest for this strip, but as with Monday,
the severity and duration of the fire weather threat will be
conditional on the degree of downslope warming/drying.
Elsewhere within the broader elevated risk area, humidity values
will generally be higher (20-30%), but transient and localized
critical conditions are possible. In particular, the Santa Lucia
range could see sufficient downslope drying to support relative
humidities between 15-20% by the afternoon hours. However, fuels
in this region are not as receptive as further south. An expansion
of the critical risk area may be warranted in future outlooks
if confidence in reduced RH increases and fuel reports show that
very dry/receptive fuels are in place. Winds will remain strong
through early Wednesday, which may prolong fire weather concerns
into Wednesday morning.
..Moore.. 01/18/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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