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LU9DCE > ALERT 29.09.20 16:07z 77 Lines 3993 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26381_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29 09
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<GB7COW<GB7YEW<AB0AF<VA7RBP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200929/1601Z 26381@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202
AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis... An amplified western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS
trough upper pattern is forecast to persist on Thursday. A shortwave
trough embedded within the moderate to strong cyclonic upper flow
is expected to move through the mid MS and OH Valleys. A stable,
continental air mass will follow in its wake, helping to reinforce
the stable air mass already expected to be in place across much of
the central and eastern CONUS. This stable air mass will preclude
thunderstorms across much of the central and eastern CONUS. The only
exceptions are across the Upper Great Lakes region (particularly
over Lake Michigan and Lake Erie), where cold temperatures aloft
will support modest instability and the potential for isolated
lightning flashes, and across southern FL, where a moist air mass
remains in place.
Expansive upper ridging extending from the Pacific Northwest into
central Mexico will persist throughout the period. Dry and stable
conditions associated with this ridging will preclude thunderstorms
across the western CONUS.
..Mosier.. 09/29/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance is in good agreement
that upper troughing will be in place across much of the central
and eastern CONUS early D4/Friday. A shortwave trough is currently
expected to traverse this trough, moving across the northern/central
Plains on D4/Friday before continuing across the mid MS and OH
Valleys on D5/Saturday. Another shortwave trough may follow quickly
in the wake of the first.
This series of shortwaves will help maintain a stable continental
air mass across the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. Some
thunderstorms do appear possible on across portions of the southern
Plains on D5/Saturday and the Lower MS Valley on D6/Sunday, ahead of
a cold front sweeping southward/southeastward. Marginal instability
is currently expected to limit coverage of severe thunderstorms.
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis... Weak offshore flow (15 to 20 mph) may be ongoing
at the beginning of the period across southern California with
very dry conditions (relative humidity 7-10 percent). Winds should
turn onshore during the afternoon hours. Diurnal pressure changes
may turn winds offshore again Wednesday night, but it is unclear
whether winds will reach elevated criteria.
Strong mid-level northwesterly flow will continue across the northern
and central Plains with deep mixing expected to bring some of this
stronger flow to the surface. The elevated area has highlighted the
most likely area for elevated to locally critical conditions. This
elevated area may expand in later outlooks as the region with the
greatest overlap of dry and windy conditions becomes more clear.
..Bentley.. 09/29/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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El tiempo es como un rio que forma los acontecimientos.
-- Marco Aurelio. (121-180) Filosofo latino.
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