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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.09.20 19:02z 89 Lines 4890 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25965_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20 09
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<GB7COW<GB7YEW<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200920/1900Z 25965@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738
AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020
Valid 201300Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IMMEDIATE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS LATE
OVERNIGHT...
...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado threat in the outer northern
sector of Tropical Storm Beta may reach immediate southeast Texas
and southwestern Louisiana coastal areas late overnight.
...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a progressive northern stream
will persist, featuring a strong trough -- now located over the
northern High Plains from southern MB across southwestern SK and
central/ southeastern MT. This feature should reach central/southern
MB, southward close to the Red River of the North in the U.S., by
12Z tomorrow. Isolated thunderstorms are possible to its southeast
and south over portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest;
however, lack of both stronger moisture and low-level lift should
preclude organized severe potential.
At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front over the Atlantic
to a low off the east-central FL coastline, then quasistationary
over central Fl and the northern Gulf, looping around the northern
and western perimeter of Tropical Storm Beta's envelope. The Gulf
part of the frontal zone should move little through the period,
except where nudged shoreward late tonight near southeast TX and
southwestern LA amidst Beta's influence.
...Upper TX/southwestern LA coastline... Beta is forecast
by NHC to remain a tropical storm, as its center moves slowly
west-northwestward then northwestward toward a day-2 landfall
along the TX coast near PSX. Large values of low-level shear/SRH
will be common along the upper TX and southwestern LA coasts
through the period, but not favorable instability, thanks in
part to the low-level flow responsible for the large hodographs.
Isallobarically forced northeasterly boundary-layer winds (slightly
offshore to shore-parallel, depending on local coastline orientation)
will persist through most of the period, as the small, asymmetric
cyclone shifts toward the middle/upper TX Coast.
For today into this evening, that flow field will maintain a
relatively stable, high-MLCINH, lower-theta-e boundary layer
over the coast, compared to the Beta max buoyancy in more purely
maritime/tropical sector offshore. Trajectories through areas of
inland rainfall north of the front also may be a reinforcing source
of static stability. During the last few hours of the period,
around 08Z-12Z, as the center gets roughly south of the GLS area,
easterly onshore near-surface components sufficient for favorable
theta-e advection may reach the immediate coast. Any supercells
forming over the Gulf then may survive a short distance inland.
Please see latest NHC advisories for the most current track and
intensity forecast information on Beta, as well as tropical watches
and warnings.
..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/20/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION... There are substantial differences in medium-range
guidance regarding the placement of Tropical Cyclone Beta across the
vicinity of east TX by Day 4/Wednesday. There might be a low-end
severe risk across parts of east TX into LA and perhaps the lower
MS Valley/Southeast on Day 4/Wednesday and Day 5/Thursday. However,
shear and instability are both forecast to be rather weak over
these areas. Otherwise, severe potential across the remainder
of the CONUS should remain limited through Day 6/Friday, as more
substantial low-level moisture will likely be confined to parts of
east TX into LA and the lower MS Valley/Southeast. By the end of the
week and into next weekend, guidance is coming into somewhat better
agreement regarding the placement and amplification of large-scale
upper troughing over the central CONUS. Some potential for greater
low-level moisture return appears possible ahead of this upper
trough across much of the central/eastern CONUS by Day 7/Saturday,
but predictability regarding any severe potential remains low.
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El sol tiene el tamano de un pie humano.
-- Heraclito de Efeso. (535-475 A.C.) Filosofo griego.
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