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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.09.20 18:31z 92 Lines 5148 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25846_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18 09
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200918/1800Z 25846@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.20
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751
AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today
over the contiguous U.S.
...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a longwave trough over eastern
North America will continue to foster broadly cyclonic flow across
the upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, central/northern
Appalachians, and Northeast. Upstream, ridging will progress
eastward from the central/northern Rockies across adjoining High
Plains, as a prominent synoptic cyclone moves inland over the
Pacific Northwest. The center of circulation -- now evident in
moisture-channel imagery about 75 nm west of Cape Blanco OR -- should
become more diffuse as it approaches the northern OR coast today,
and as the cyclone changes to a strong open-wave trough. The axis
should lie close to the coast from WA to central CA around 00Z,
reaching eastern WA/OR and western NV by 12Z tomorrow. Meanwhile,
a broad area of weak heights and embedded vorticity lobes will extend
from Tropical Depression 20 in the western Gulf northeastward across
LA toward the northeastern CONUS longwave trough.
At the surface, a weak low-pressure area -- representing the feeble
remnants of what once was Hurricane Sally -- was drawn at 11Z from
offshore of the Hampton Roads area of VA southwestward along a
frontal zone to the ILM area. Associated substantial convection
has moved offshore, as will the entire remnant cyclone over the
next few hours. The front extended southwestward across the Fl
Panhandle to the northwestern Gulf.
...Inland Pacific Northwest... Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected through this evening over western
parts of WA/OR, with some activity potentially forming east of the
Cascades this afternoon and moving northeastward across central OR.
The strongest among these may produce hail and/or gusts near severe
limits; however the potential appears too conditional and/or isolated
for categorical-level probabilities at this time.
Two main mesoscale areas of interest for strong convective potential
are: 1. The northern Cascades of northwestern WA. Large-scale lift/
cooling will overspread the area beneath the left-exit region of the
strongly cyclonically curved, mid/upper-level jet streak accompanying
the progressive cyclone/trough. The related steepening of lapse
rates aloft, over a relatively moist boundary layer, may yield areas
of 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE, amidst 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes.
2. From the Willamette Valley northeastward to north-central OR,
across intervening Cascades. Greater low-level moisture -- but also
more cloud cover/precip-related low-level instability concerns --
will exist over the valley, where convective coverage may be greater.
Deep shear also should weaken with time this afternoon closer to the
trough, even as midlevels cool/destabilize. Meanwhile, stronger
heating, steeper low-level lapse rates, and increasing deep shear
in parameter spaces favorable for supercells will spread across
areas east of the Cascades. Moisture and convective coverage will
be limited, however.
..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/18/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION... Deterministic medium-range guidance generally
suggests that a tropical cyclone over the western Gulf of Mexico
should move slowly along/near the TX Coast from Day 4/Monday through
the middle of next week, although predictability remains low at
this extended time frame. Refer to the latest forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center regarding the track and intensity of this
system. At this point, the potential for even weak destabilization to
occur inland is highly uncertain. Accordingly, the severe potential
associated with this tropical cyclone appears fairly low at this
time, but some chance cannot be ruled out along parts of the TX Coast
into the Southeast from Day 5/Tuesday onward. Otherwise, surface high
pressure is forecast to remain over much of the eastern CONUS next
week. This anticyclone, coupled with the tropical system over the
western Gulf of Mexico, is expected to limit substantial low-level
moisture return for most of the CONUS away from the Gulf Coast,
along with appreciable severe potential.
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Todos los cerebros del mundo son impotentes contra cualquier estupidez que
este de moda
-- T. Fontane.
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