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LW3DBH > ALERT 21.04.20 02:22z 65 Lines 3424 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 62386_LW3DBH
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 20 04
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LW3DBH
Sent: 200421/0209Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:62386 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:62386_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749
PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OZARKS...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with strong wind gusts and
hail will be possible early this evening in the Ozarks. A few storms
with hail could also occur late tonight in northeast Texas.
...Ozarks... The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle
shortwave trough moving southeastward through the lower Missouri
Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the shortwave
trough in a west-northwest to east-southeast corridor of drier
mid-level air. The storms are located ahead of a cold front in an
airmass that is weakly unstable. Surface dewpoints are only in the
45 to 55 degree F range. This is contributing to weak instability
with the RAP showing MLCAPE of 250 to 500 J/kg. In addition,
the WSR-88D VWP at Springfield, Missouri has 0-6 km shear near 40
kt. This environment will continue to promote a marginal severe
risk for another hour or two early this evening. Hail and strong
gusty winds will be the primary threats.
...Eastern Wisconsin... A shortwave trough is evident across
the upper Mississippi Valley this evening. At the surface, a cold
front associated with the trough is moving southeastward across
south-central Wisconsin. Thunderstorms are developing near the
front ahead of the shortwave trough along the leading edge of
a band of large-scale ascent. Although instability is very weak,
wind profiles are unidirectional with 30 to 40 kt of flow just above
the surface. This is will create conditions favorable for strong wind
gusts with thunderstorms that move eastward toward Lake Michigan this
evening. The threat is expected to continue for a couple more hours.
...Northeast Texas... A shortwave ridge will move eastward across
the southern Rockies this evening as west-northwest mid-level flow
remains over the southern Plains. Low-level moisture advection will
continue across the eastern half of Texas. In response, instability
should increase with time this evening into the overnight period
across parts of east and north Texas along the western edge of
a moist airmass. As a low-level jet strengthens across central
Texas, thunderstorm development is expected to take place on the
northern edge of the stronger low-level flow. These storms should
remain elevated and move southeastward along the instability axis
across northeast Texas late tonight. MUCAPE of 1000 to 1200 J/kg,
effective shear of 50 to 60 kt and steep mid-level lapse rates may be
enough for marginal hail threat, mainly in the 09Z to 12Z timeframe.
..Broyles.. 04/21/2020
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If man is only a little lower than the angels, the angels should reform.
-- Mary Wilson Little
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