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LW3DBH > ALERT 20.04.20 02:22z 267 Lines 13320 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 19 04
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From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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WW 123 TORNADO AL MS 192055Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 123
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Southeast
Mississippi
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense
tornadoes likely Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches
in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over central Mississippi will track eastward
along a boundary into the watch area this afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds and hail are likely with the more intense storms.
A few tornadoes are also possible as winds aloft strengthen this
evening, including a risk of strong tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute
miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west northwest
of Evergreen AL to 40 miles south southeast of Auburn AL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 121...WW 122...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.
...Hart
WW 122 TORNADO LA MS TX CW 191940Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Much of Louisiana Southwest
Mississippi Southeast Texas Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple
intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very
large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging
wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across east Texas
this afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area through
the evening. Large hail and damaging winds are likely with the most
intense cells. The risk of a few tornadoes is also increasing as
winds aloft strengthen. Strong tornadoes are possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 150 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Alexandria
LA to 65 miles southwest of Intracoastal City LA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...WW 121...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 25035.
...Hart
WW 121 TORNADO LA MS 191645Z - 200000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 121
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Louisiana Central and
Southern Mississippi
* Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1145 AM until 700
PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense
tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large
hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging
wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms over Louisiana will track
eastward across the watch area this afternoon. The strongest
storms will pose a risk large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
An isolated strong tornado is possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles south of Monroe LA to 15
miles east northeast of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 25035.
...Hart
WW 0123 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 123
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MEI TO
15 WSW SEM TO 15 NNW MGM TO 35 NNE MGM.
..SPC..04/20/20
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 123
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-011-013-023-025-035-039-041-047-051-053-081-085-087-
091-099-101-109-113-129-131-200140-
AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER
CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA LEE
LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONROE
MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL WASHINGTON WILCOX
MSC039-041-111-131-153-200140-
MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE PERRY STONE
WAYNE
WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW 7R4 TO
40 NW LFT TO 35 N MCB.
..NAUSLAR..04/20/20
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...SHV...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-005-007-033-037-045-047-055-057-063-077-091-093-095-097-
099-101-103-105-109-113-117-121-125-200240-
LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON
ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE LAFAYETTE
LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN
ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE
VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA
MSC005-045-047-059-109-113-147-157-200240-
MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMITE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON
PEARL RIVER PIKE WALTHALL WILKINSON
WW 0121 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 121
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ESF TO
20 N HEZ TO 50 NNE HEZ TO 70 NW PIB TO 15 ESE MEI.
..SPC..04/19/20
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 121
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC029-200040-
LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CONCORDIA
MSC001-021-023-029-031-035-037-049-061-063-065-067-073-075-077-
085-091-101-121-123-127-129-200040-
MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH
COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAMAR
LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARION
NEWTON RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
MD 0414 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 123... FOR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0414 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0825 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020
Areas affected...Southeast Alabama...Southwest Georgia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 123...
Valid 200125Z - 200230Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 123 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues across the southern half of
ww123. At this time a new watch does not appear warranted downstream
into Georgia, but one may be needed later this evening.
DISCUSSION...Convective outflow boundary remains draped across
southern GA, arcing into southeast AL over Crenshaw County. Leading
edge of long-lived MCS that tracked across central MS/AL has
progressed to near the GA border where it is decidedly elevated
as it progresses atop cool and stable boundary layer. However,
southern-most extent of this MCS trails to near the old outflow
boundary over Crenshaw County, but this updraft will likely become
elevated soon unless it turns markedly southeast along the wind
shift. In the short term, primary tornado threat with this activity
will be along the southern flank of the MCS where inflow region
remains near-surface based.
..Darrow.. 04/20/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 32358614 32618434 31128435 31548650 32358614
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801
PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY... A severe-weather outbreak is expected to continue
across much of the Deep South through tonight, with the greatest
threat from southern Mississippi eastward across southern Alabama
and south-central Georgia. Multiple episodes of thunderstorms will
likely result in tornadoes with some possibly strong, widespread
damaging winds, and large hail.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast/Carolinas... Two clusters of
strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing. The first is located
across southeast Alabama. These storms are located just to the
west of and along the nose of a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet. The
low-level jet will likely increase this evening as shear ramps up
across the region. In southeast Alabama, surface dewpoints are near
70 F and MLCAPE is estimated to be hear 2000 J/kg according to the
RAP. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP near Dothan, Alabama shows 0-6
km shear of 65 to 70 kt with 0-3 km storm relative helicity near
320 m2/s2. The surface wind is from due south and the lowest 1 km
AGL is characterized by strong speed and directional shear. This
will support supercells and tornadoes this evening. A potential
for strong tornadoes will likely exist. The convection that remains
linear within the complex, should be able to produce widespread wind
damage. Large hail will likely accompany supercells and the more
organized multicell line segments. This complex is forecast to move
eastward across the remainder of southeast Alabama into south-central
Georgia this evening into tonight with a severe threat continuing.
Further west, the second cluster of strong to severe storms is
ongoing across southern Mississippi. This activity is located just
to the northeast of a maximum in instability. The RAP is showing
a bullseye of MLCAPE in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range in southeast
Louisiana. Just downstream, the Mobile WSR-88D VWP has a 0-6 km shear
near 65 kt with strong speed shear in the lowest 1 km AGL. In spite
of a veered surface wind, 0-3 km storm relative helicity is near
550 m2/s2. This will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes.
Strong tornadoes will be possible with the supercells that are
dominant. Large hail with hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter may also occur with the stronger updrafts. A wind damage
threat will also accompany supercells and the more organized
line segments. The severe threat should move eastward across the
remainder of southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle this evening into tonight.
Later tonight, a cold front will advance southeastward across the
Southeast as the low-level jet moves northeast to the South Carolina
coast. The development of a squall-line will be possible along
the front from the Florida Panhandle northeastward to the eastern
Carolinas. Bowing line segments and embedded supercells within
the line should be capable of producing tornadoes and wind damage.
Widespread wind damage will be possible.
..Broyles.. 04/20/2020
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What awful irony is this? We are as gods, but know it not.
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