| |
LW3DBH > ALERT 19.04.20 02:31z 92 Lines 4754 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 62153_LW3DBH
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 18 04
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LW3DBH
Sent: 200419/0208Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:62153 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:62153_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
_ __ _______ ____ ____ _ _
| |\ \ / /___ /| _ \| __ )| | | | BBS
| | \ \ /\ / / |_ \| | | | _ \| |_| | MORENO
| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
|_____\_/\_/ |____/|____/|____/|_| |_|
======================================================================
MD 0398 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ARKLATEX
AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0827 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020
Areas affected...ArkLaTex and far southeast Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 190127Z - 190330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Elevated storms will continue to develop and move
northeast tonight over the ArkLaTex and far southeast Oklahoma.
Marginally severe hail is the main threat, and a watch is unlikely
given the isolated and marginal severe threat.
DISCUSSION...A few elevated storms have developed across portions
of east Texas and far southeast Oklahoma over the last hour. Warm
air advection is helping to initiate elevated convection within
a corridor of elevated buoyancy extending from east Texas into
southeast Oklahoma. This corridor of higher MUCAPE (500-1000+
J/kg) will slowly translate eastward as heights begin to slowly
fall in response to an upper-level shortwave trough moving into
the Southwest and southern/central High Plains. A southwesterly
low-level jet of 25-40 knots is expected over this region overnight,
which will continue to support elevated convection. Unidirectional
shear aloft will also aid updraft development/storm organization to
the extent of marginally severe hail. Additionally, isolated strong
wind gusts reaching the surface cannot be ruled out. These initial
storms may begin to weaken and collapse as they reach the edge of
better instability/buoyancy, but convection developing behind them
may traverse further into Arkansas and Louisiana later tonight.
..Nauslar/Goss.. 04/19/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 31419467 31849546 32779573 33679596 34239595 34569563
34579416 34309347 33879302 33369276 32709281 31999310 31629384
31419467
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748
PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST
REGION...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur
from parts of Texas across the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf
Coast Region this evening through tonight.
...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast...
An upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the
Mississippi Valley this evening as an upper-level trough moves
across the Four Corners region. As this upper-level trough
approaches tonight, moisture advection will take place across
eastern sections of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi
Valley this evening. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue
developing from parts of far southeast Texas into southern Louisiana
this evening. This activity should spread east-northeastward with
time and be associated with strong wind gusts and hail. Additional
elevated storms should develop in the Arklatex and lower Mississippi
Valley this evening into the overnight period. As moisture advects
northward tonight, MUCAPE is expected to increase into the 1000 to
2000 J/kg range across much of the Arklatex and lower Mississippi
Valley. This combined with effective shear of 50 to 60 kt will be
enough for a marginal hail threat with the stronger thunderstorms. A
few strong wind gusts can not be ruled out. The threat could extend
as far east as northern Florida late tonight.
Farther west, the upper-level trough will approach the southern
Plains late tonight. By the end of the period, the west edge of
the moisture and instability is forecast to be in the Texas Hill
Country and north Texas. As large-scale ascent increases due to
the approach of the trough, strong thunderstorms should develop
along the western edge of instability around or just before 12Z
Sunday. Moderate instability combined with strong effective shear
should be favorable for hail with the stronger updrafts.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2020
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
It has long been an axiom of mine that the little things are infinitely the
most important.
-- Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, "A Case of Identity"
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
