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LW3DBH > ALERT 17.04.20 02:22z 85 Lines 4509 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 61889_LW3DBH
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 16 04
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LW3DBH
Sent: 200417/0208Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:61889 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:61889_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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| | \ \ /\ / / |_ \| | | | _ \| |_| | MORENO
| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
|_____\_/\_/ |____/|____/|____/|_| |_|
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MD 0392 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN
IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND FAR WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0392 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020
Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...southern Iowa... northern
Missouri...and far west central Illinois
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 162243Z - 170245Z
SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow with snow rates between 1-2 in/hr will
likely continue across far southeast NE, southern IA, northern MO,
and far west central IL through the evening hours.
DISCUSSION...Recent ASOS observations from eastern NE report heavy
snow with visibility at or below one mile at times. These reports,
in conjunction with snowfall reports from the past few hours of 1-2
inches of snow accumulation, suggest that the snow band in place
across east/southeast NE, southern IA, and northern MO continues
to produce areas of snow rates between 1-2 in/hour. Recent radar
trends show increasing organization of this band, which is largely
being driven by strengthening 850-700 mb frontogenesis and strong
isentropic ascent over the region ahead of a mid level shortwave
trough. Low to mid level cold advection across the central
High Plains through the evening hours will hinder rapid eastward
translation of the shortwave trough and may act to increase mid level
flow via thermal wind responses. As such, the forcing mechanisms
of this snow band will likely continue through the evening hours
as the feature slowly propagates to the east within the mean flow.
Given the strength of the mesoscale forcing for ascent and radar
presentation, snowfall rates of 1-2 in/hour should still continue
at least for the next several hours. There is some uncertainty
regarding the eastward extent of the heavy snowfall potential across
southeast IA/west central IL where surface wet bulb temperatures
are current at or just above freezing amid relatively high (5-10 F)
surface dewpoint depressions. This implies that snowfall rates may be
reduced due to low level evaporation prior to full column saturation.
..Moore/Goss.. 04/16/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 41529621 41629461 41479208 41159072 40639050 40189079
40019149 40029234 40139370 40209544 40409641 40849699 41279688
41529621
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741
PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY... A thunderstorm or two associated with isolated
marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts is possible in southern
Kansas and northwest Oklahoma for another hour this evening.
...Southern Kansas/Northwest Oklahoma... Latest water vapor imagery
shows an upper-level trough in the Intermountain West with a plume
of mid-level moisture located in westerly flow from the base of the
trough eastward into the central Rockies and central Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is moving southward across southern Kansas and
far northwest Oklahoma. Surface heating and convergence along the
front along with increased low-level has aided convective development
along the front early this evening. The airmass ahead of the front
is weakly unstable (MLCAPE of 250 to 500 J/kg). In spite of this,
strong vertical shear is present (0-6 km shear 65 to 75 kt). This
environment should be enough for a marginally severe thunderstorm
capable of strong wind gusts and hail. The threat should continue
for another hour before decreasing instability diminishes the threat.
..Broyles.. 04/17/2020
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