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LW3DBH > ALERT 12.04.20 02:22z 303 Lines 15154 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 61277_LW3DBH
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 11 04
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Sent: 200412/0211Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:61277 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:61277_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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WW 102 TORNADO TX 120140Z - 120900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 840 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of South Central Texas
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 840 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple
intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and isolated very
large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging
winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely
SUMMARY...A few intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to
track eastward across the watch area through the late evening and
overnight hours. Storms will be capable of very large hail and
tornadoes, along with locally damaging wind gusts.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 85 miles west of Hondo TX to 45
miles north of Victoria TX. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 100...WW 101...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.
...Hart
WW 101 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 112235Z - 120400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 PM CDT Sat
Apr 11 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern
Kansas Northwest Missouri
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 535 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify across
parts of central Kansas early this evening and spread eastward
across the watch area. Large hail and gusty winds will be possible
in the more intense storms.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from Hutchinson KS to 35
miles northeast of Kansas City MO. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 100...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Hart
WW 100 TORNADO OK TX 111900Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma Western and
northwest Texas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered large
hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter
likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will gradually intensify along
and ahead of the dryline into the early evening. Some of these will
develop into supercells with the primary hazards being very large
hail and a few tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles southwest of San Angelo TX
to 30 miles northwest of Altus OK. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Grams
WW 0102 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 101
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COOK..04/11/20
ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 101
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-005-015-017-031-041-043-045-059-061-073-079-085-087-091-
095-103-111-113-115-121-127-139-149-155-161-169-173-177-197-209-
120040-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ATCHISON BUTLER CHASE
COFFEY DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN GEARY GREENWOOD HARVEY JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON KINGMAN LEAVENWORTH
LYON MCPHERSON MARION MIAMI MORRIS
OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RENO RILEY
SALINE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE
MOC003-021-025-037-047-049-061-063-095-165-177-120040-
MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL
WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 101
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E ICT TO
35 SW EMP TO 30 S MHK TO 35 N MHK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0340
..COOK..04/12/20
ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 101
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-005-017-031-043-045-059-061-073-085-087-091-103-111-121-
127-139-149-161-177-197-209-120240-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ATCHISON CHASE COFFEY
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY
GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH LYON MIAMI MORRIS
OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE
MOC003-021-025-037-047-049-061-063-095-165-177-120240-
MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CASS
CLAY CLINTON
WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE 6R6 TO
40 W SJT TO 60 WNW ABI TO 45 SSE CDS TO 30 W LTS TO 35 W CSM.
..COOK..04/12/20
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC031-033-055-057-065-075-141-120240-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COMANCHE COTTON GREER HARMON
JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN
TXC009-023-059-077-081-105-151-155-197-207-235-253-275-353-399-
413-417-431-441-447-451-485-487-120240-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CALLAHAN CLAY
COKE CROCKETT FISHER FOARD
HARDEMAN HASKELL IRION JONES KNOX
NOLAN RUNNELS SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD
STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN WICHITA
WILBARGER
MD 0340 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 101... FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0340 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020
Areas affected...central/eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 101...
Valid 120103Z - 120200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 101
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 101.
DISCUSSION...Storms that initiated between/west of MHK and EMP have
gradually evolved into a cluster and have moved northeastward toward
the Topeka area. These storms have primarily been hail producers,
with multiple reports of 1-1.75 inch hail and an isolated 2-inch
report. These reports are not suprising given the steep-lapse-rate
environment in place across the region.
Latest guidance/observations suggest that these storms will continue
on their trek northeastward through the I-70 corridor between
Topeka and Kansas City areas, maintaining a hail risk as they do so.
An estimated 45-50 knot storm motion should place storms near/north
of the Kansas City metro in the 0130Z/0230Z timeframe.
Farther southwest, only isolated, sub-severe convection has
managed to maintain itself across far northwestern Oklahoma, and
this convection may reach southwestern portions of WW 101 over
the next hour. The extent of the severe threat in this region
(upstream of the eastern Kansas cluster) is a bit uncertain.
Convective trends will be monitored, but it is likely that portions
of the WW near the I-135 corridor may be cancelled well before the
04Z scheduled expiration time.
..Cook.. 04/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 38939786 39429670 40119491 40209368 39529353 38709401
38079502 37469645 37329790 37379865 37949851 38939786
MD 0339 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA OF TEXAS AND ADJACENT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0339 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020
Areas affected...The Edwards Plateau area of Texas and adjacent
Rio Grande Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 120051Z - 120215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Severe risk is forecast to increase with time across the
Edwards Plateau and vicinity. Large hail should be the main risk,
though potential for locally damaging winds a possibly a tornado
or two will also exist.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a persistent storm just to the
Mexican side of the Rio Grande west of Del Rio, which has intensified
over the past half hour. High-res CAM output continues to suggest
that an isolated storm or two may cross the River into the Val
Verde/Edwards/Kinney County vicinity this evening, consistent with
the evolution of this cell.
Other congested cumulus over the Mexican higher terrain has remained
steady-state, with some signs of decrease recently, in conjunction
with diurnal cooling. However, as ascent with the approaching
southern AZ upper low continues advancing eastward, a later, more
widespread increase in storms is expected across southwestern Texas.
A consistent signal persists in CAM output that rather rapid,
widespread convective development -- separate from the current storm
-- will occur, within the 04Z to 06Z time frame. The expected,
isolated nature of the current convection may permit delay in WW
issuance in the short term. Potential for watch issuance will
increase later this evening however, as the aforementioned UVV
spreads eastward toward this region.
..Goss/Hart.. 04/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29470169 30110178 30450141 30570027 30459989 29949951
29359973 28920054 29470169
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
OK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TX...
CORRECTED FOR TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across
parts of the central and southern Great Plains. The greatest threat
through early Sunday morning is expected from southwest Oklahoma
into western and central Texas. Very large hail, tornadoes, and
scattered damaging winds will be the primary hazards.
...01z Update - Central/Southern Plains Vicinity...
The main update at 01z was to extend the Slight risk northward ahead
of the dryline across parts of eastern KS and northwest MO, as well
as portions of northeast OK. Several storms have developed ahead
of the dryline across eastern KS between Wichita and Topeka. These
storms have produced hail as large as 2 inches in diameter within
the last hour. Expect these storms to continue developing northeast
over the next several hours, posing a continued large hail threat
into parts of northwest MO.
In addition to the northward expansion of the Slight risk, the
Marginal risk was also extended north and east into portions of
southern IA and across parts of northern and western MO/northern AR.
Elevated convection is forecast by CAMs as far north as southern
IA tonight, as a cold front begins to surge southeast across the
northern/central Plains. Steep lapse rates and adequate shear,
in combination with weak elevated instability will support a risk
for marginal hail in stronger cells. Further south, as convection
continues to spread eastward across OK tonight, storms will
encounter stronger low level inhibition across eastern OK into
the Ozark Plateau where areas of thunderstorms have persisted.
Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable shear, along
with weak elevated instability should be sufficient for marginally
severe hail into the early morning hours.
Elsewhere across the southern Plains, the forecast mostly remains on
track, with an Enhanced risk in place from southwest OK southward
toward the Edwards Plateau and portions of central TX. The only
change across this region is the removal of the 10% tornado
probabilities across parts of southwest OK into adjacent portions
of the TX South Plains where ongoing storms have developed into a
rather messy mode through multiple interactions/mergers.
...South FL...
A couple of strong storms across Broward and Miami-Dade Counties
will continue to track east/southeast this evening. Small hail
or gusty winds are possible for another hour or two, but overall
severe threat is expected to diminish this evening as drier midlevel
air/subsidence spreads across the Peninsula.
..Leitman.. 04/12/2020
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You are a wish to be here wishing yourself.
-- Philip Whalen
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