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LW3DBH > ALERT 09.04.20 02:22z 391 Lines 19855 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 08 04
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Sent: 200409/0211Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:60874 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:60874_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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WW 92 TORNADO AR TN 090005Z - 090700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 92 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 705 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Western and
Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 705 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Widespread
large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in
diameter likely Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms currently extending from
northern Arkansas into southeast Missouri will sag southeastward into
the watch area this evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be possible in the stronger cells, along with an increasing
risk of a few tornadoes after dark.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles southwest of Jonesboro AR
to 40 miles east of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 88...WW 89...WW 90...WW 91...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 28035.
...Hart
WW 91 TORNADO IN KY OH 082325Z - 090600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 91 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 725 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southern Indiana Central
Kentucky Southwest Ohio
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 725 PM
until 200 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Widespread
damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms currently over
Illinois will move across the watch area this evening. Large hail
and damaging winds will be possible with these storms. A few
tornadoes will also be possible - especially across the southern
half of the watch.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 10 miles northwest of Muncie IN to 55
miles east southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88...WW 89...WW 90...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28035.
...Hart
WW 90 TORNADO AR IL IN KY MO 082125Z - 090500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 90 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 425 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Southern Illinois
Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 425 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Widespread
large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in
diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant
gusts to 75 mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will rapidly develop this afternoon across
southeast Missouri and build eastward across the watch area this
evening. Supercells and bowing segments capable of very large hail
and damaging wind gusts are expected. A few tornadoes are possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute
miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of
West Plains MO to 15 miles south southeast of Owensboro KY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88...WW 89...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28035.
...Hart
WW 89 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO 082005Z - 090200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 89 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Wed Apr
8 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa Western
and Central Illinois Eastern Missouri
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with
isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail
likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms will quickly increase and intensify near/ahead of
a southeast-accelerating cold front. The environment is favorable
for initial supercells capable of large hail. Damaging winds will
also become an increasing concern by early evening as storms tend
to merge and organize into a fast-moving line particularly across
central/southeast Illinois.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
105 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of
Bloomington IL to 45 miles south southwest of Saint Louis MO. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 29040.
...Guyer
WW 0092 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 92
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COOK..04/09/20
ATTN...WFO...MEG...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 92
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC031-035-037-093-111-090240-
AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS MISSISSIPPI
POINSETT
TNC005-017-021-023-033-037-039-043-045-047-053-055-069-071-075-
077-079-081-083-085-095-097-099-101-109-111-113-119-125-131-135-
147-149-157-159-161-165-167-169-181-183-187-189-090240-
TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CHEATHAM CHESTER
CROCKETT DAVIDSON DECATUR DICKSON
DYER FAYETTE GIBSON GILES HARDEMAN
HARDIN HAYWOOD HENDERSON HENRY
HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS LAKE LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LEWIS MCNAIRY MACON
MADISON MAURY MONTGOMERY OBION
WW 0091 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 91
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HUF TO
15 N BMG TO 25 ENE IND TO 45 SE FWA.
..COOK..04/09/20
ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 91
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC005-013-019-025-027-029-031-037-041-043-047-055-059-061-065-
071-077-079-081-083-093-101-105-109-115-117-123-135-137-139-143-
145-155-161-175-177-090240-
IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD
DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DUBOIS
FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN GREENE HANCOCK
HARRISON HENRY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN
MONROE MORGAN OHIO ORANGE
PERRY RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SCOTT
SHELBY SWITZERLAND UNION WASHINGTON
WAYNE
KYC001-003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-029-031-037-041-045-049-
053-057-061-067-073-077-079-081-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-111-
113-117-123-135-137-141-151-155-161-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-
185-187-191-201-207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-239-
WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 90
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HRO TO
40 WNW UNO TO 25 SSE VIH TO 30 S STL.
..COOK..04/09/20
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 90
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-021-049-055-065-075-121-135-090240-
AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER CLAY FULTON GREENE
IZARD LAWRENCE RANDOLPH SHARP
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-157-165-
181-185-191-193-199-090240-
IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN
HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI
RANDOLPH SALINE UNION WABASH
WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON
WW 0089 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 89
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE FAM TO
15 ESE BLV TO 15 N SLO TO 30 SSE MTO TO 40 S HUF.
..COOK..04/09/20
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC025-027-101-121-159-189-090240-
IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLINTON LAWRENCE MARION
RICHLAND WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0088 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 88
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE MEI TO
45 WSW SEM TO 15 N MGM TO 10 ENE AUO TO 35 NE CSG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316
..COOK..04/08/20
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-011-013-025-035-041-047-051-081-085-087-099-101-109-113-
131-082340-
AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CLARKE
CONECUH CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE
LEE LOWNDES MACON MONROE MONTGOMERY
PIKE RUSSELL WILCOX
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE TRI TO
45 SSW PSK TO 20 W GSO TO 5 ENE GSO.
WW 87 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 090000Z.
..COOK..04/08/20
ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...RLX...ILN...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 87
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC005-009-171-189-193-197-090000-
NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHANY ASHE SURRY WATAUGA
WILKES YADKIN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0318 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 90...91... FOR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0318 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020
Areas affected...southern Illinois...Indiana...northern
Kentucky...southwest Ohio
Concerning...Tornado Watch 90...91...
Valid 090046Z - 090245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 90, 91 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat of widespread wind damage is developing over
parts of the region. A tornado or two remains possible as well.
DISCUSSION...Numerous severe wind gusts have been measured on area
ASOS this evening over IL where storms continue to intensify along
a rapidly moving cold front. The northern end of this severe line
of storms is moving across the Indianapolis area, while farther
south a particularly intense portion of the line is now moving
over Crawford and Lawrence counties in IL, and soon to cross into
southwest IN where significant wind damage is possible.
Meanwhile, other cells continue to produce large hail and damaging
winds across the Paducah area, well ahead of the front.
The air mass across the remainder of the area, including much of KY,
southern IN and southwest OH, remains favorable for damaging storms
with strong large-scale lift and steepening midlevel lapse rates. A
tornado threat is possible as well, especially later this evening
as SRH is enhanced as southwesterly 850 mb winds increase in speed.
..Jewell.. 04/09/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX... LSX...
LAT...LON 36508830 36748904 37528969 38148986 38868940 39058857
39158793 39508723 39888669 40378585 40268429 39788321 39018320
37818419 37268536 36698703 36508830
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804
PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable
of producing large hail and damaging winds, some significant, are
expected from this evening across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
through late tonight.
...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... The latest water vapor imagery
overlaid with RAP analysis data shows a subtle shortwave trough over
the Great Lakes. The southern extension of this feature is in the
mid Mississippi Valley. A cold front is located from central Indiana
southwestward into south-central Illinois, with a band of strong
to severe thunderstorms ongoing along the front. Ahead of this
band of storms, the RAP is analyzing moderate instability across
a broad area of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with MLCAPE in the
1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs show
0-6 km shear of 55 to 65 kt over the same area. A plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates is also evident over the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. This environment will continue to support numerous severe
storms across the region this evening. Wind damage will be most
likely from south-central Illinois eastward across southern Indiana
and west-central Kentucky as a squall-line continues to organize
over the next few hours. Wind gusts greater than 70 kt will be
possible with the stronger portions of the line. Supercells will
also be likely within the line itself. Large hail will accompany
the more intense updrafts with a hailstones of greater than 2 inches
in diameter possible. A few tornadoes may occur with supercells
and along the leading edge of bowing line segments.
Further south, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
ongoing from far southern Illinois into southeast Missouri,
northeast Arkansas and far western Kentucky. The RAP is showing
very strong instability across this area with MLCAPE in the 2500
to 3500 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km
shear in the 50 to 55 kt range. This will be favorable for discrete
supercells with large hail over the next few hours. Hailstones
of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more
dominant cells. The squall-line will continue to organize further
to the north as cell coverage increases over western parts of the
Tennessee Valley. Eventually, the two areas of storms will converge
and a well-developed linear MCS should develop across the Tennessee
Valley later this evening. Widespread damaging wind gusts with some
gusts above 70 kt will be possible with the stronger parts of the
this line. A few tornadoes could also occur with supercells and
bowing line segments.
...South-central Georgia... A cluster of strong thunderstorms is
ongoing across southern and central Georgia early this evening. RAP
analysis shows a corridor of moderate instability extending
east-northeastward from the Florida Panhandle into the southern
Georgia where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg
range. In addition, the Tallahassee WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6 km shear
near 50 kt. This combined with steep low-level lapse rates should
be favorable for severe storms with wind damage potential. Hail
may also be present in the stronger cores.
...North Carolina... Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave
trough located just to the crest of the southern Appalachian
Mountains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across east-central
North Carolina just ahead of this shortwave trough. Surface
dewpoints ahead of the storms are generally in the lower 60s F
which has contributed to some destabilization across the region. In
addition, the Morehead City 00Z sounding shows 50 kt of deep-layer
shear. This should be sufficient for a severe threat with the
stronger cells. Short multicell line segments may produce damaging
wind gusts for a few more hours this evening.
...Central and East-central Texas... The latest surface analysis
shows a very moist airmass in place across much of central and east
Texas. A zone of low-level convergence is present on the northwestern
edge of the moist sector in the Texas Hill Country. Thunderstorms
are developing near this axis of convergence. Model forecasts expand
convective coverage this evening as the storms move eastward into a
corridor of very strong instability. In addition to MLCAPE in the
2500 to 3500 J/kg range, RAP analysis shows 40 kt of deep-layer
shear. This will be favorable for severe storms with large hail
and possibly a few damaging wind gusts.
..Broyles.. 04/09/2020
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Where there's a will, there's a relative.
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