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LW3DBH > ALERT 08.04.20 02:22z 289 Lines 13764 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 60743_LW3DBH
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 07 04
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LW3DBH
Sent: 200408/0210Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:60743 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:60743_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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WW 84 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH PA LE LM 080105Z - 080700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 84 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 905 PM EDT Tue Apr
7 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Far
southern Lower Michigan Northern Ohio Northwest Pennsylvania Lake
Erie Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 905 PM
until 300 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with
isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail
likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of supercells will evolve east-southeast
tonight with development into a broader MCS expected. A mix of
large hail and damaging wind gusts appear probable.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of
Valparaiso IN to 35 miles north northeast of Youngstown OH. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 81...WW 82...WW 83...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 29040.
...Grams
WW 83 SEVERE TSTM MI LE 072315Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 83 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 715 PM EDT Tue Apr
7 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Lower Michigan
Lake Erie
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 715 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...An initially elevated cluster with embedded supercell
structure will progress southeast from east-central Lower Michigan.
Additional surface-based supercells across southwest Lower Michigan
should spread into far southeast Lower Michigan later this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast
of Saginaw MI to 35 miles south of Ann Arbor MI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 81...WW 82...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
30040.
...Grams
WW 82 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN LM 072225Z - 080400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 82 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Tue Apr
7 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far east-central Iowa
Northern Illinois Far northwest Indiana Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A couple supercells may evolve into an east-southeast
progressing cluster along a cold front from far eastern Iowa
through northern Illinois this evening. Large hail should be the
primary hazard.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of
Rockford IL to 15 miles north of Valparaiso IN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 81...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 28035.
...Grams
WW 81 SEVERE TSTM IL MI WI LM 072055Z - 080200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 81 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Tue Apr
7 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Illinois
Western Lower Michigan Southeast Wisconsin Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with
isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail
likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this
afternoon along an approaching cold front and move across the
watch area. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible
in the stronger cells. An isolated tornado or two is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest
of Traverse City MI to 65 miles southeast of Racine WI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 28035.
...Hart
WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW UOX TO
40 NNE TUP TO 40 N MSL TO 35 SSW BNA TO 15 SSE BNA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229
..SQUITIERI..03/24/20
ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...MEG...OHX...MRX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-043-049-059-071-075-077-079-083-089-093-095-103-133- 250040-
AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB FRANKLIN
JACKSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MORGAN
WINSTON
MSC013-017-057-081-095-115-117-141-145-250040-
MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LEE
MONROE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TISHOMINGO
UNION
WW 0083 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 83
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW LAN TO
25 S FNT TO 15 NNW FNT TO 30 W MBS.
..SQUITIERI..04/08/20
ATTN...WFO...DTX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 83
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC017-049-087-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-157-161-163- 080240-
MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY GENESEE LAPEER LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MIDLAND MONROE
OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR TUSCOLA WASHTENAW
WAYNE
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-080240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MLI TO
10 SE RFD TO 40 S RAC TO 35 SE RAC.
..SQUITIERI..04/08/20
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 82
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC037-043-089-093-103-161-195-197-080240-
IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB DUPAGE KANE KENDALL
LEE ROCK ISLAND WHITESIDE WILL
INC089-127-080240-
IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PORTER
IAC031-045-095-103-107-115-139-163-183-080240-
IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR CLINTON IOWA JOHNSON
KEOKUK LOUISA
WW 0081 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW AZO TO
10 NNW AZO TO 25 SE GRR.
WW 81 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 080200Z.
..SQUITIERI..04/08/20
ATTN...WFO...LOT...GRR...APX...MKX...GRB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC015-025-045-065-075-077-080200-
MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CALHOUN EATON INGHAM
JACKSON KALAMAZOO
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749
PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
through tonight across southern portions of the Great Lakes region
into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. The strongest storms will
pose a threat for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple
of tornadoes.
...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture
extending from the Mid Missouri Valley eastward into the southern
Great Lakes region. Thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume
along the leading edge of a band of large-scale ascent. The storms
are also located just ahead of a cold front located from eastern
Iowa extending into far southwestern Lower Michigan where a 1001 mb
low is present. Moderate instability is analyzed ahead of the front
across much of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys where MLCAPE is
estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition to the
instability, a 60 to 70 kt mid-level jet is analyzed by the RAP
over the western Great Lakes. This feature is helping to create
strong deep-layer shear profiles across much of the region. This
is evident on the WSR-88D VWP at Chicago which has 0-6 km shear
near 55 kt with strong speed-shear in the mid-levels.
Further south, the 00Z sounding at Lincoln, Illinois shows 50 kt
of 0-6 km shear with a 700-500 mb lapse rate of 7.7 C/km. This is
sampling an elevated mixed layer which the RAP shows from eastern
Iowa extending eastward into northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.
Supercells that develop along this corridor will be capable of
producing large hail, with some hailstones greater than 2 inches
in diameter possible. Supercells and bowing line segments will also
be capable of damaging wind gusts. The greatest potential for very
large hail and more numerous damaging wind gusts is forecast to be
from southern Lower Michigan southeastward across northeast Indiana
and north-central Ohio. The RAP is also showing a low-level speed
max over southern Lake Michigan. This feature will move eastward
with time and make low-level shear strong enough for an isolated
tornado threat with the more dominant supercells.
MCS development is ongoing across the southern Great Lakes region.
This large area of storms is forecast to move east-southeastward into
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians this evening into tonight. A
threat for large hail and wind damage will likely exist overnight
with the stronger thunderstorms within this MCS. An isolated wind
damage and hail threat may persist through late tonight as the MCS
moves into the Mid-Atlantic region.
..Broyles.. 04/08/2020
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Ah, but a man's grasp should exceed his reach, Or what's a heaven for ?
-- Robert Browning, "Andrea del Sarto"
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