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LW3DBH > ALERT 27.03.20 02:30z 93 Lines 4939 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 59422_LW3DBH
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 26 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<ON0AR<OZ5BBS<CX2SA<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LW3DBH
Sent: 200327/0208Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:59422 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:59422_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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| | \ \ /\ / / |_ \| | | | _ \| |_| | MORENO
| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758
PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large to
very large hail are expected tonight from east-central to northeast
Kansas into central Missouri and south central Illinois later this
evening and tonight. A few locally strong wind gusts might also
accompany some of the storms.
...Central Plains into the Midwest regions...
This evening a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwest
through southern MO into northern OK where it has stalled. The 00Z
RAOB data show mid 60s F dewpoints advecting northward through the
warm sector beneath warm air at the base of an elevated mixed layer.
The warm sector will remain capped to surface based storm initiation
tonight. However, moisture transport and sloped ascent above the
frontal zone along a strengthening southerly low-level jet will
result in destabilization (1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) and thunderstorm
initiation by late evening across east central or northeast KS.
There is some difference among the CAMS regarding where the zone of
initiation will be. However, given the tendency for warming aloft
in the 800-700 mb layer and strength of the EML, have leaned more
toward the HRRR and have expanded the SLGT risk area farther north
and east with this update. Steep lapse rates, moderate instability
and 50+ kt effective bulk shear through the convective layer should
support elevated supercells capable of large to very large hail as
activity develops eastward overnight. Some upscale growth might
occur later in the evolution, and some storms might also produce
a few instances of locally strong to damaging wind gusts.
..Dial.. 03/27/2020
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353
PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
IL/IN...AS WELL AS THE ARK-LA-MISS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will be possible, mainly
Saturday afternoon and evening, across much of the Mississippi and
Ohio Valley regions. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large
hail will all be possible.
...MS/OH Valley area... A deepening synoptic cyclone will move from
northeast KS Saturday morning to WI by Saturday night, in advance
of an ejecting/positive-tilt midlevel trough. An elevated mixed
layer in prior days should limit thunderstorm coverage in the warm
sector, and allow low-level moisture to spread northward into IL
and the OH Valley, beneath the remaining steep lapse rate plume
through the day Saturday. Elevated convection will be possible
through the day into the northern half of the OH Valley in a warm
advection regime, and also across IA/WI in the zone of strong ascent
preceding the surface cyclone and midlevel trough. Large hail will
be the primary threat with the elevated storms.
During the day, surface destabilization in advance of the cold
front will contribute to an environment favorable for thunderstorm
development along the front by early afternoon, roughly near the
MS River. Potentially moderate bouyancy (MLCAPE close to 1000 J/kg)
and effective bulk shear in excess of 70 kt will favor supercells,
with broken bands of cells expected given fast storm motions that
will likely exceed the motion of the cold front. Low-level shear
and hodgraph curvature will be largest across the northern part of
the warm sector, where a few tornadoes will be possible, in addition
to damaging winds/large hail. The frontal convection will spread
eastward through the evening/overnight into the OH Valley, with
some potential for isolated severe wind/hail and perhaps tornadoes.
There is some potential for increases in severe probabilities and
some expansion of the northern Slight Risk area in later updates.
Areas of TN/KY will also be monitored for any increase in severe
threat with convection developing northeastward overnight from the
Mid South. The southern Slight Risk area remains unchanged in this
update, though there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the
severe threat this far south.
..Thompson.. 03/26/2020
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