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LW3DBH > ALERT 25.03.20 02:18z 180 Lines 8982 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 59222_LW3DBH
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 24 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<LU4ECL<LW3DBH
Sent: 200325/0209Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:59222 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:59222_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
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WW 62 TORNADO AL GA TN 250045Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 62 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 845 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Alabama Northwest Georgia
Far southeast Tennessee
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 845 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms should spread east
across northeast Alabama into far southeast Tennessee, including
northwest Georgia. Isolated damaging winds and a couple tornadoes
are possible before storms likely weaken later this evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles east southeast of Gadsden
AL to 10 miles north northeast of Chattanooga TN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 61...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm
motion vector 27045.
...Grams
WW 61 TORNADO AL MS TN 242005Z - 250300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 61 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northeastern
Mississippi The southern half of western and middle Tennessee
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple
intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph
likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected in the next
couple of hours from western Tennessee and northeastern Mississippi
into northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. The storm
environment will be favorable for tornadoes, including a strong
tornado or two, in addition to damaging winds and large hail.
Storms will spread eastward through late evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute
miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Huntsville AL
to 55 miles south southwest of Muscle Shoals AL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 26040.
...Thompson
WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0062 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CBM TO
5 WSW HSV TO 30 N CHA.
..SQUITIERI..03/25/20
ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...MEG...OHX...MRX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC043-049-071-075-089-095-103-133-250240-
AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CULLMAN DEKALB JACKSON LAMAR
MADISON MARSHALL MORGAN WINSTON
TNC007-035-250240-
TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLEDSOE CUMBERLAND
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0231 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020
Areas affected...Far southeast Arkansas into northwest Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 250055Z - 250300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated, low-topped supercells will persist for a
couple more hours before remaining instability wanes. Some of the
strongest storms may support marginally severe hail or perhaps a
damaging gust. The isolated nature of the severe threat precludes
a WW issuance.
DISCUSSION...Isolated convection, including a few low-topped (20-30
kft high) supercells, have become established ahead of a cold front
across southeast Arkansas. These storms sustaining themselves in
a modestly buoyant airmass, characterized by 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
driven by 0-3km lapse rates and mid-upper 60s dewpoints. 50 knot
speed-shear-driven bulk effective shear values suggest that storms
should remain organized and maintain at least modest mid-level
rotation given remaining buoyancy.
The organized nature of the storms may result in brief instances of
marginally severe hail and perhaps a damaging gust. As the boundary
layer continues to stabilize later this evening, gradual weakening of
convection is expected, as depicted by latest HRRR runs. Given the
short-term and isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance
is not expected.
..Squitieri.. 03/25/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 34019224 34529127 35019050 35068968 34668951 33978986
33459034 33249092 33189156 33439217 34019224
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800
PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MS...NORTHERN AL...SOUTHEAST TN AND NORTHWEST GA...
...SUMMARY... The threat for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds will be focused this evening across the Tennessee Valley.
...01Z Update... Recent surface analysis places a low just northeast
of BNA in northern middle TN. A cold front extends southwestward
from this low to another low over southwest AR. Some isolated
thunderstorms are ongoing along this front across AR (addressed by
MCD #231) but the greater thunderstorm coverage is within the warm
conveyor ahead of the front from central MS across northern AL and
through middle TN. Here, several embedded supercells continue to
progress eastward within a larger mulitcell cluster.
Thermodynamic environment downstream of the ongoing supercells
in central AL is characterized by temperatures in mid/upper 70s
and dewpoints in low 60s. However, despite these relatively warm
and moist conditions, warm temperatures aloft and poor mid-level
lapse rates are tempering instability. This is sampled well by the
00Z BMX sounding. Modifying this sounding for current conditions
results in slightly more instability. Even with these relatively
poor thermodynamic conditions, strong deep-layer shear is expected
to result in the persistence of these already organized storms for
at least the next few hours. Tornado Watch 62 was recently issued
across northeast AL, northwest GA, and far southeast TN to cover
this threat and complement Tornado Watch 61 already in effect across
northeast MS, northern AL, and southern middle TN.
All severe hazards remain possible, including tornadoes, for the
next few hours. However, ongoing nocturnal stabilization will lead
to a diminishing tornado/damaging wind gust threat over the next
few hours. The overall thunderstorm cluster is expected to continue
eastward across northern GA/eastern TN into the western Carolinas,
sustained by persistent forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave
trough as well as more mesoscale forcing/warm air advection along
the storm outflow.
..Mosier.. 03/25/2020
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The aim of a joke is not to degrade the human being but to remind him that
he is already degraded.
-- George Orwell
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