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LW3DBH > ALERT 20.03.20 11:23z 122 Lines 6131 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 58784_LW3DBH
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 20 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<LW3DBH
Sent: 200320/1108Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:58784 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:58784_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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| |\ \ / /___ /| _ \| __ )| | | | BBS
| | \ \ /\ / / |_ \| | | | _ \| |_| | MORENO
| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
|_____\_/\_/ |____/|____/|____/|_| |_|
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222
AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Sunday and
Sunday night across parts of the Southeast and in California. No
severe thunderstorms are expected.
West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
southern and eastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a moist airmass
will be in place along the Gulf Coast. As a shortwave trough moves
eastward across the central states, thunderstorms will be possible
on Sunday from eastern portions of the southern Plains eastward
across much of the southeastern U.S. A few storms may occur in
California due to the approach of an upper-level low. No severe
thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday
night mainly due to weak instability.
..Broyles.. 03/20/2020
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday,
the medium-range models move a shortwave trough across the southern
Plains. A moist airmass is forecast to advect northward into the Red
River Valley with a dryline setting up across western Oklahoma and
northwest Texas. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible
to the east of the dryline Monday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear
associated with a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet is forecast to create
conditions favorable for severe storms. Supercells and bowing line
segments will be possible with a potential for tornadoes, wind damage
and large hail. The magnitude of the threats will likely depend upon
how much moisture can return northward and how much instability can
develop on Monday. At this time, the potential for a severe weather
event appears great enough to warrant adding a 15 percent area.
On Tuesday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across
the Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place
in most of the southeastern states. Scattered thunderstorms will
be possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys where
enough instability and deep-layer shear should be in place for
a severe threat. A tornado threat along with potential for wind
damage will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. A threat
area could be added as confidence increases concerning where the
greatest severe threat will be.
...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... On Wednesday, west to
west-southwest mid-level flow is forecast across much of the
nation. Shortwave ridging will be possible across the Mississippi
Valley. The greater potential for strong thunderstorms would
be further to the west in the southern Plains. The strongest
instability is forecast to be across central and northeast Texas
where a severe threat will be possible. A 15 percent area could be
added in later outlook once spatial uncertainty decreases.
On Thursday and Friday, the models move an upper-level trough
across the southwestern states as west to west-southwest flow
remains across the eastern half of the nation. The models continue
to suggest a moist airmass will be in place from eastern portions
of the southern Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley.
Thunderstorms would be possible on the western and northern edge
of the strongest instability from eastern Texas northeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley. However, predictability is still low
concerning where the severe threat will be the greatest.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A southward surging cold front will bring cooler
temperatures and higher relative humidity values across much of
the central CONUS for today. Gusty winds will be possible behind
the front, but the combination of recent precip and high relative
humidity will mitigate any fire danger. To the east, widespread
precipitation will hinder any fire weather potential, and recent
rain/snow across much of the southwestern US along with high relative
humidity will limit the fire weather threat.
..Moore/Squitieri.. 03/20/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A cool, post cold frontal airmass and recent rainfall
will limit the fire weather potential for the eastern two-thirds of
the CONUS. Southerly winds will likely increase across southern
NM Saturday afternoon on the periphery of a central-US surface
high. Despite some downslope drying across southern NM, ensemble
guidance shows low confidence that elevated fire weather conditions
will be met. Additionally, recent wetting rainfall across this
region has reduced fuel readiness.
..Moore/Squitieri.. 03/20/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Conjecture: All odd numbers are prime.
Mathematician's Proof:
3 is prime. 5 is prime. 7 is prime. By induction, all
odd numbers are prime.
Physicist's Proof:
3 is prime. 5 is prime. 7 is prime. 9 is experimental error.
11 is prime. 13 is prime ...
Engineer's Proof:
3 is prime. 5 is prime. 7 is prime. 9 is prime. 11 is
prime. 13 is prime ...
Computer Scientists's Proof:
3 is prime. 3 is prime. 3 is prime. 3 is prime...
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