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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.03.20 07:02z 153 Lines 8594 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11525_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 17 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<CT1ENI<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 200317/0700Z 11525@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQK6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CYGWIN - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251
AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART
OF WEST...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this
afternoon through the evening across a large part of west, northwest,
and north-central Texas. The main threats with these storms will
be large hail and damaging wind gusts.
...Southern Great Plains... The nose of a mid to high-level speed
max will quickly move from northwest Mexico northeastward to the mid
MS Valley during the period. In the low levels, a lee trough will
extend southward through the southern High Plains from a weak area
of low pressure over the central High Plains. A stationary frontal
zone will arc east-southeastward from the TX Panhandle through
the Red River Valley during the day. The boundary will gradually
advance northward primarily after dark across portions of OK.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible this morning to the north of the stationary boundary
across southern OK into the TX Panhandle. To the south of the
front, southerly low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of 60s
dewpoints across much of central TX. Heating/destabilization during
the day will contribute to moderate instability by peak heating.
Storm development is likely to focus over northwest TX near the
boundary intersection during the afternoon. Models are currently
depicting the residual frontal zone to remain draped west-east
across the Red River Valley during the afternoon/evening hours.
Other isolated storms will likely develop later down the dryline
as convective inhibition erodes coincident with the arrival of
a mid-level disturbance moving into the southern High Plains.
Large hail and severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms.
Upscale growth is forecast during the evening across parts of
the Edwards Plateau with gusty winds becoming the primary risk.
Elevated thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for mostly hail
but possibly wind across OK beginning during the late afternoon
and perhaps sporadically lingering into the overnight hours as a
LLJ strengthens over OK/north TX.
..Smith/Bentley.. 03/17/2020
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF WEST/NORTHWEST TX AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OK...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should
occur from mainly Wednesday evening into the overnight across parts
of the southern and central Plains. Damaging winds will probably
be the main hazard across portions of west/northwest Texas and far
southwestern Oklahoma, although isolated large hail and a couple
tornadoes also appear possible.
...Southern/Central Plains... Isolated to perhaps widely scattered
thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of
the southern Plains into the Ozarks. This activity should shift
eastward as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually shifts eastward
and away from this area. A notable shortwave trough embedded within
large-scale upper troughing over the western states is forecast to
eject northeastward across the Southwest and to the southern/central
High Plains by late Wednesday night. At the surface, a low will
likely deepen over the central High Plains as large-scale ascent
preceding the shortwave trough overspreads this area. A dryline
should extend southward from this low across the southern High
Plains. A broad warm sector characterized by mid 50s to mid 60s
surface dewpoints will exist across much of the southern Plains
into the Ozarks, mid MS Valley, and lower OH Valley.
Capping may delay convective initiation across the southern Plains
through the day. The arrival of the shortwave trough and attendant
mid-level southwesterly jet by Wednesday evening will likely
encourage rapid thunderstorm development across the southern High
Plains along/east of the dryline. There is still some uncertainty
regarding the quality of low-level moisture return across west TX and
the TX Panhandle, with the 00Z NAM notably more moist with surface
dewpoints. Regardless, sufficient instability will likely overlap
strong effective bulk shear around 40-50 kt across this region to
support organized severe thunderstorms. A southerly low-level jet
should rapidly strengthen from 00Z to 06Z across parts of west into
north-central TX. Although supercells may initially develop, the
strong low-level jet combined with the eastward-moving dryline/cold
front will likely result in a mainly linear storm mode within
a few hours after convective initiation. Damaging winds should
be the main threat, but isolated large hail may occur with any
initially discrete development or supercells embedded within the
larger convective line. A scattered damaging-wind threat should
focus across parts of west/northwest TX and far southwestern OK
where the low and mid-level flow should be strongest.
Instability is forecast to be weaker across parts of KS, but may
still be sufficient to support large hail with elevated supercells.
Near-surface-based storms may also occur where greater low-level
moisture is present across parts of south-central into eastern KS.
....Lower Ohio Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is
forecast to move over the OH Valley through the day, with a warm
front developing northward over the lower OH Valley. At this time,
it appears that the stronger forcing associated with this shortwave
trough will remain generally to the north of the surface warm
sector. If convection can develop farther south (across parts
of KY and vicinity), then perhaps a marginal severe threat may
materialize. This potential will be reevaluated in later outlooks.
..Gleason.. 03/17/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A surface low will be centered over the central
Rockies with an upper cyclone drifting slowly southeastward across
California. Ahead of this system, mid-level flow will strengthen,
which will transport to the surface via vertical mixing. Surface
winds are expected to be 15 to 25 mph with relative humidity between
15 and 25 percent. Therefore, elevated meteorological conditions
are likely across portions of central New Mexico. However, this
area has seen wetting rainfall over the past week thus fuels are
likely not overly receptive. Therefore, no fire weather areas will
be added at this time.
..Bentley.. 03/17/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across the
Southwest on Wednesday. This trough will bring Pacific moisture
northward and lead to low-elevation rain and mountain snow to most
of the Southwest. The leading edge of this moisture push is expected
to be in the southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas area. Stronger
surface winds will mostly be across New Mexico where moisture
and precipitation will be present, but some stronger surface flow
may overlap the drier airmass in eastern Colorado/western Kansas.
However, it is not clear elevated criteria will be met, and portions
of this area have seen precipitation in the past week. Therefore,
due to these uncertainties, no fire weather areas are warranted.
..Bentley.. 03/17/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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