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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.03.20 07:03z 85 Lines 4517 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11478_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 16 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<CT1ENI<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 200316/0701Z 11478@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CYGWIN - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229
AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG
BEND OF TX...
...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across the Texas
Big Bend region during the late afternoon/early evening.
...Big Bend...
A weak short-wave trough across the southern Baja Peninsula is
forecast to eject into northern Mexico later today. In response
to this feature, low-level southeasterly flow should be maintained
across the lower Rio Grande Valley into west TX as pressures will
remain reduced over the higher terrain. While the old surface
boundary that was draped across the Big Bend will gradually lift
north during the day, strong heating across the Mexican plateau into
far west TX suggests surface parcels may reach their convective
temperatures, especially south of the international border where
large-scale forcing will be focused. The greatest concentration of
convection should remain south of the border but a few storms could
develop by 22-00z as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/near 80
to the southwest of the National Park. Forecast soundings suggest
hail and gusty winds will be the primary threats. This activity
should wane with loss of heating in the absence of upper support.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/16/2020
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259
AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST AND NORTHWEST TX...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Tuesday
across parts of west and northwest Texas.
...Southern Plains... A southwesterly mid/upper-level jet will
gradually overspread parts of the southern Plains by Tuesday evening
as a large-scale upper trough/low develops eastward over the western
states. A surface low is forecast to slowly deepen over the central
High Plains as ascent preceding the mid/upper-level jet overspreads
the High Plains. A dryline should extend southward from this low
across the southern High Plains.
Some convective potential could exist Tuesday morning into the
early afternoon along a surface boundary, which may extend across
parts of northwest TX towards the TX/OK border. If storms occur,
they may tend to develop along/north of the front, and could
pose mainly an isolated threat for large hail. There is still
considerable uncertainty regarding the placement of this front,
and its possible northward advance Tuesday night across OK. Steep
mid-level lapse rates will reside over much of the southern High
Plains to the south of the surface boundary. Diurnal heating of
a sufficiently moist low-level airmass should support weak to
moderate instability developing across this region by late Tuesday
afternoon. Deep-layer shear is also forecast to increase as the
mid/upper-level jet approaches.
Latest guidance suggests that storm initiation along/east of the
dryline may not occur until Tuesday evening. Regardless, the forecast
combination of instability and shear will likely support organized
storm structures. Convective mode remains somewhat uncertain,
with both discrete and linear modes possible through the evening
as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Isolated large hail
and damaging winds should be the main threats, although a tornado
or two may also occur if supercells develop initially. A linear
mode may tend to dominate late Tuesday evening into the overnight,
with mainly a risk for strong/gusty winds continuing into parts of
central TX, and perhaps southwestern OK.
..Gleason.. 03/16/2020
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If the future isn't what it used to be, does that mean that the past is
subject to change in times to come?
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