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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.03.20 07:13z 118 Lines 6207 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11436_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 15 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 200315/0700Z 11436@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CYGWIN - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231
AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
BIG BEND...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur Sunday across parts
of west Texas and far southeastern New Mexico.
...West Texas/Southeast New Mexico...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough
off the Baja Peninsula moving northeast in line with latest model
guidance. This feature is forecast to track across northern Mexico
during the day with a vort max approaching the Big Bend region of
TX by 16/00z. Downstream, surface pressures are expected to remain
high across the Plains which will maintain easterly low-level
boundary-layer flow across south-central TX into the Big Bend. As
a result, surface dew points should gradually rise into the higher
terrain ahead of the aforementioned short wave.
Prior to the disturbance, elevated convection is expected to develop
across the TX South Plains along the nose of LLJ. This early-day
activity could generate marginally severe hail before progressing
northeast and weakening. Potentially more significant thunderstorm
development is possible near, or just after 00z, across the Big
Bend. While large-scale heights are not expected to fall across
this region, there appears to be some support for upward evolving
convection where upslope flow and strong shear will coincide.
Forecast soundings for MRF favor supercells with large hail.
Additionally, low-level shear also seems supportive for at least some
tornado threat with discrete storms that remain near-surface based.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/15/2020
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200
AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast
across the contiguous United States on Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A closed upper low near the coast
of northern CA should begin to shift slowly southward along/near
the central CA Coast on Monday. A strong mid/upper-level jet is
forecast to likewise develop southward over parts of central/southern
CA through the period. Pronounced ascent associated with this
feature may encourage the development of low-topped thunderstorms,
but instability is forecast to remain very weak across this
area. Downstream, an upper trough should amplify over parts
of central/eastern Canada into the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. Between the West Coast upper low and this upper trough,
shortwave ridging will remain across parts of the Rockies and
adjacent High Plains through the period.
Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across portions
of the southern Plains into the Ozarks to the north of a surface
front in a weak low-level warm advection regime. This activity may
persist through the day while moving slowly eastward. Low-level
moisture should gradually advance northward across parts of north TX
and perhaps into OK by Monday evening. Regardless, any large-scale
ascent aloft that would help storm initiation appears largely absent
through Monday night across the southern Plains. Some elevated storms
may eventually occur late in the period along a southward-moving
cold front across southern KS, OK, and vicinity. Given the lack
of a clear signal for surface-based storms across any portion of
the warm sector, organized severe storms are not forecast Monday.
..Gleason.. 03/15/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Mid-level southwesterly winds are expected to
increase across New Mexico today ahead of a large mid-level cyclone
moving south along the California coast. Deep mixing is expected
across much of New Mexico which should bring some stronger 15 to 20
mph flow to the surface. In addition, relative humidity will likely
drop to the 15 to 25 percent range. While these meteorological
conditions support a fire weather threat, significant rainfall
has fallen across this area in the last 3 to 4 days. Therefore,
the large-fire threat remains low.
..Bentley.. 03/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Conditions will be mostly cool/moist across the
country with the exception being portions of the Southwest. Relative
humidity across most of this region will be in the 15 to 30
percent range with winds of 10 to 15 mph. Some locally elevated
conditions may be possible in southern New Mexico, but winds
will likely struggle to get above 15 mph for more than a short
period. Additionally, fuels across this area are still quite moist
given the recent moderate rainfall within the last 3 days. Therefore,
no fire weather areas are warranted at this time.
..Bentley.. 03/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Limitless
The Way is a limitless vessel; Used by the self, it is not filled by the world;
It cannot be cut, knotted, dimmed or stilled; Its depths are hidden, ubiquitous
and eternal; I don't know where it comes from; It comes before nature.
-- Lao Tse, "Tao Te Ching"
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