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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.03.20 07:01z 92 Lines 4953 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10815_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 05 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 200305/0700Z 10815@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CYGWIN - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155
PM CST Wed Mar 04 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN FL...
...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the southeastern United States Thursday.
...Synopsis... A progressive upper flow pattern will prevail
across the U.S. today, with the two prominent systems affecting
the country. The first -- a short-wave trough initially over the
north-central states -- is expected to progress east-southeastward
across the Great Lakes and Midwest, as it gradually strengthens and
evolves into a closed low. The other feature -- a southern-stream
short-wave trough progged to be crossing the lower Mississippi Valley
during the morning -- will be associated with strong/isolated severe
storms over the Southeast during the day. The system will shift
quickly east-northeastward, moving off the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic
coast overnight.
At the surface, a low near the mouth of the Mississippi at the
start of the period is progged to move quickly east-northeastward
along a conglomerate outflow/front, before moving off the Georgia
coast during the afternoon. Showers and scattered thunderstorms
are expected to persist near and ahead of the low, before moving
offshore by early evening.
...Southeast AL/southern GA/northern FL and the FL Panhandle...
As the upper trough advances east-northeastward across the Southeast
and an associated surface low tracks eastward along the west-to-east
front/outflow, a very favorably sheared environment is forecast ahead
of the low -- with winds strengthening substantially and veering
with height from southerly to west-southwesterly. This kinematic
environment, and the presence of a west-to-east vorticity-rich
baroclinic zone -- aligned roughly parallel to forecast storm
motion -- support a risk for supercell storms, including some
tornado potential. While weak low-level lapse rates/limited CAPE
expected to persist through the day will temper severe potential
to some extent, a narrow corridor of more focused severe risk is
expected, in close proximity to the frontal zone.
Exact location of the boundary -- and thus northern extent of the
severe risk -- remains a bit uncertain at this time, as the front
continues progressing slowly southward at this time, while elevated
storms continue in a zone of warm advection north of the front.
Some northward retreat is expected, though persistent convection
in the cool sector should prevent a more aggressive northward surge.
Given these factors, a relatively narrow zone of SLGT risk --
including 5% tornado potential -- is evident, aligned roughly along
the GA/FL border. Though diurnal destabilization should remain
minimal, late morning/early afternoon uptick in severe risk is
expected, as the upper system advances quickly across the Southeast.
Risk will end in most areas as the surface low moves offshore,
though a stronger storm may linger over northeast Florida along
the trailing cold front into early evening.
..Goss/Nauslar.. 03/05/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245
AM CST Thu Mar 05 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the Continental
U.S. on Friday.
...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is expected to
move from the Lower Great Lakes/southern Ontario eastward off the
Northeast coast on Friday. In the wake of this cyclone, surface
high pressure will build southeastward from the Plains into the MS
Valley while lee troughing deepens over the High Plains. Farther
west, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the
northeast Pacific Ocean, ending the period just off the Pacific
Northwest/northern CA coast. Dry and/or stable conditions are
anticipated across the CONUS and no thunderstorms are currently
forecast.
..Mosier.. 03/05/2020
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As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain,
and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.
-- Albert Einstein
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