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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.03.20 07:15z 68 Lines 3761 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10758_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 04 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IQ5KG<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 200304/0701Z 10758@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CYGWIN - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151
PM CST Tue Mar 03 2020
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage, hail
and a tornado threat are possible from this afternoon through tonight
in the Lower Mississippi Valley and along the central Gulf Coast.
...Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast... An upper-level
low will move eastward into the southern Plains today as southwest
mid-level flow develops across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead
of the system, a moist airmass will be in place from southeast Texas
extending eastward to the central Gulf Coast. A quasi-stationary
front will exist along this corridor where strong warm advection will
occur during the day. In response, an east to west band of elevated
thunderstorms associated with a marginal severe threat appears
likely to develop across north-central Louisiana, south-central
Mississippi and south-central Alabama. Hail and isolated strong
wind gusts will be possible with this convection.
Further south, from the front southward to the Gulf Coast, low-end
moderate instability will be in place. Low-level convergence along
the front along with strong warm advection should result in some
thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon. Forecast
soundings early this afternoon near the front from New Orleans
eastward to Mobile show MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear of
50 to 55 kt and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.5 C/km. This
should support supercell development associated with wind damage
and isolated large hail. Hodographs show strong directional shear
in the lowest 1 km AGL and speed shear in the low to mid levels,
resulting in 0-3 km storm-relative helicities near 300 m2/s2. This
will support a tornado threat with the supercells that develop along
or near the boundary. Cells that move north of the boundary may
transition to more of a large hail and isolated wind-damage threat.
As the upper-level low moves eastward across the southern Plains
this evening, a surface low and associated cold front will move
eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms appear
likely to develop near and to the north of the surface low. A line
segment appears likely to organize and move from west to east across
the central Gulf Coast region. Cells that develop on the southern
end of this line could be supercellular with a potential for large
hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes. Wind damage and a tornado
threat could also exist with rotating cells embedded in the line.
The leading edge of the line is expected to reach the western Florida
Panhandle late in the period where an isolated severe threat will
be possible.
..Broyles/Nauslar.. 03/04/2020
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Before you ask more questions, think about whether you really want to know
the answers.
-- Gene Wolfe, "The Claw of the Conciliator"
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