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LU9DCE > ALERT 02.03.20 07:02z 113 Lines 6231 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10635_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 02 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<OK0NBR<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200302/0700Z 10635@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202
AM CST Mon Mar 02 2020
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from
portions of the Mid-South region southwestward across parts of
northeastern Texas Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning.
...Synopsis... As northern-stream upper troughing expands/shifts
gradually eastward across central and eastern Canada and the
north-central U.S., an upper low initially off the southern
California coast is progged to turn eastward with time,
reaching northwestern Mexico later in the period. Meanwhile,
fast/low-amplitude westerly to west-southwesterly flow will prevail
over the south-central and southeastern portions of the country.
At the surface, a cold front initially stretching from the Upper
Great Lakes region southwestward to western Texas will advance
eastward with time, reaching a position from New England to
southeast Texas by the end of the period. This front will focus
a zone of convection from parts of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys
into northeastern Texas from this afternoon into the overnight hours.
...Mid South region southwestward across northeastern Texas...
As the cold front advances gradually southeastward across
Kentucky/Tennessee/Arkansas/northeastern Texas through the day, an
initial area of warm-advection-induced storms will spread eastward
through the Mid South region. In its wake, weak destabilization is
expected ahead of the front, though capping will hinder new storm
development into the afternoon hours.
Substantial model differences exist with respect to the degree
of cap erosion, with HRRR and NAM forecasts the most aggressive
models with elimination of capping by late afternoon, resulting
in an uncapped/amply unstable environment. Given favorable shear
across the region, this thermodynamic evolution would support
at least isolated supercell storms, and attendant severe risk --
particularly in the form of hail. Other/isolated storms are more
consistently forecast by the models southwestward across Arkansas
and northern Louisiana and portions of northeastern Texas.
Based on the consistently more bullish output from NAM/HRRR runs,
an upgrade to slight risk appears reasonable. Primary risk appears
to be hail, but locally damaging winds and even a couple of tornadoes
would be possible should capping erode to the degree depicted in some
guidance. Primary risk appears to exist across the western Tennessee
vicinity in roughly the 23 to 04Z time frame. Marginal risk is
also being extended as far southwestward as northeast Texas, where
a few stronger storms appear likely to initiate during the afternoon.
..Goss/Nauslar.. 03/02/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2020
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to dig southeast
across the Desert Southwest and northwest Mexico today before
pivoting tonight and becoming less positively-tilted. An associated
surface cold front will push southeast through the Southwest and
into northwest Mexico while another cold front will continue moving
southward across the Plains. Surface high pressure will remain in the
Great Basin in the wake of the cold frontal passage. Precipitation
is expected across portions of southern California, the Southwest,
and Trans-Pecos.
...Northern California and Central Valley... Strong north-northeast
winds will continue across portions of northern/central California,
including the Sacramento Valley, Bay Area, and northern San
Joaquin Valley. As drier air continues to filter into the area,
elevated conditions are likely to continue through the afternoon
with north-northeast sustained winds of 15-30 mph and RH values of
15-25%. Stronger downslope winds are possible across western slopes
of the Sierra Nevada and into the foothills, but recent precipitation
and cooler temperatures will be mitigating factors. Fuels remain
quite dry with record setting low 10/100-hour dead fuel moisture
values across portions of northern California.
Offshore, northeast winds will likely make it to portions of Ventura
and Los Angeles Counties, but only locally elevated conditions are
anticipated with recent/forecast precipitation also limiting the
fire weather threat.
..Nauslar.. 03/02/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2020
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A closed upper low will slowly move eastward
along the Arizona/New Mexico-Mexico border tomorrow and eventually
into west Texas tomorrow night. Precipitation is expected across
southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and much of Texas through
tomorrow night. Surface high pressure will remain entrenched in the
Great Basin/interior Intermountain West with dry, north-northeasterly
flow developing across much of southern California including west
of the mountains. However, only elevated winds/RH are expected and
recent/forecast precipitation will mitigate the fire weather threat.
..Nauslar.. 03/02/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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