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LU9DCE > ALERT 22.01.20 07:04z 97 Lines 5041 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7717_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 22 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200122/0700Z 7717@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134
PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
contiguous United States during the day1 period.
...South TX...
Split flow regime will continue across the CONUS through the day1
period with some amplification expected over the middle of the
country by 23/12z. As heights fall across the southern Plains ahead
of a short-wave trough, a surface wave should form off the south
TX Coast. This will allow higher boundary-layer air mass to advance
inland across the TX Coastal Plain. In response, a warm front will
sharpen and modified Gulf air mass will move north allowing lower
60s surface dew points to spread onshore along the lower/middle
TX Coast, perhaps approaching the Galveston region by the end of
the period. While this moisture surge is expected to aid buoyancy
across portions of south TX into the lower Sabine River Valley,
forecast shear/instability do not look particularly significant,
and not likely sufficient for organized robust convection. While
near-surface based convection is possible along/south of the warm
front, gusty winds would be the greatest risk with these storms.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/22/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250
AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected Thursday over portions
of the central Gulf Coast states, and possibly into the southern
Appalachians late.
...Discussion... An upper trough -- and evolving closed low --
over the central U.S. will be the primary feature of interest
this period with respect to the convective forecast, as it shifts
gradually eastward and reaches the middle and lower Mississippi
Valley region through latter stages of the period. Elsewhere,
flanking ridges will prevail, though an eastern Pacific short-wave
trough should reach the Pacific Northwest overnight.
At the surface, a weak closed low, along the northern extent of
an inverted trough extending northward from the Gulf of Mexico,
should evolve during the second half of the period over the Missouri
vicinity, and then reach the Mid Mississippi Valley by 24/12z.
The trough/weak front will cross the Lower Mississippi Valley through
the day, and then the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley
region overnight.
At this time, it remains likely that surface-based instability
will remain confined largely to the northern Gulf of Mexico, with
only minor potential for any higher theta-e air to creep inland.
While a non-zero severe risk appears to exist over the immediate
coastal areas, primarily across Louisiana's most southern extent,
no risk area will be introduced at this time as potential still
appears unlikely to reach even MRGL risk levels through the period.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Goss.. 01/22/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to move eastward
away from the eastern Florida coast today. Shortwave ridging will
be present across the southeast in advance of the next trough
moving in from the southern Plains. At the surface, high pressure
will remain across much of the eastern third of the CONUS with a
surface cyclone departing the Bahamas vicinity to the east. While
fire weather concerns across the US will remain low overall,
locally elevated conditions may occur in southern Georgia and the
Florida Peninsula. Portions of Georgia could see RH fall to near
30%, but the strength of winds may not reach 15 mph. In Florida,
winds will be slightly stronger, but surface flow will become more
easterly with time leading to RH recovering during the day. Whatever
locally elevated conditions do develop will be brief in duration.
..Wendt.. 01/22/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Nothing takes the taste out of peanut butter quite like unrequited love.
-- Charlie Brown
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