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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.01.20 07:03z 93 Lines 4653 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7637_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 20 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200120/0700Z 7637@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128
PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The potential for thunderstorms across CONUS will
be low today.
...Synopsis... A substantial portion of the CONUS will be under the
influence of a strong arctic high pressure system moving southward
from the northern Plains into the Midwest by early Tuesday. A strong
mid-latitude low pressure system in the eastern Pacific will approach
the Pacific Northwest late in the period.
A cold front will be near the southern Florida coast at the
beginning of the period. Near and ahead of the boundary a few
thunderstorms will be possible during the day as the front slowly
moves southward. The likelihood of this activity affecting the
immediate south Florida Coast or the Florida Keys is low, however.
A Pacific cold front will reach the coastal regions of Oregon
and Washington early Tuesday morning. Cold temperatures aloft
will increase mid-level lapse rates such that isolated low-topped
thunderstorms are possible close to the shoreline. Coverage will
likely be less than 10%, though, as thermodynamic profiles will only
be marginally supportive of thunder so far east of the mid-level low.
..Wendt.. 01/20/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243
AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Showers, and possibly a few lightning flashes, may
affect portions of the Pacific Northwest, especially early in the
period on Tuesday.
...Discussion... As a southern-stream upper low/trough initially
progged over the Southeast moves steadily eastward, and eventually
off the southern Atlantic Coast, a polar high will prevail over
the eastern half of the country. Cold/stable conditions preclude
potential for deep moist convection.
In the West, successive southern-stream short-wave vorticity maxima
are expected to cross the Southwest during the period, with the
initial feature forecast to reach/cross the southern Plains after
dark Tuesday.
Farther north, an upper low initially off the British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest Coasts will shift inland, weakening as
it does. Cold air aloft associated with this feature will assist in
development of scattered to isolated showers, particularly across
the higher terrain of western Washington/western Oregon/northern
California. With mid-level lapse rates/instability possibly
sufficient for a few lightning flashes over parts of western
Washington/Oregon, will maintain a 10% thunder area over this region.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. Tuesday.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Goss.. 01/20/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An arctic airmass will be situated across parts of
the Plains and the Midwest today. Cool/cold temperatures and light
surface winds will greatly limit fire weather concerns across much
of the country. With a cold front just having moved off the eastern
and southeastern shores, northerly surface winds will bring drier
air across the Florida Peninsula. Portions of central and southern
Florida do not appear likely to receive rainfall during the front's
passage. RH during the afternoon in a few locations will drop below
40% once low-level clouds dissipate and the surface warms. With
winds potentially around 10 mph, locally elevated conditions may
occur for a short duration.
..Wendt.. 01/20/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Grelb's Reminder:
Eighty percent of all people consider themselves to be above
average drivers.
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