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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.01.20 07:04z 128 Lines 6945 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7390_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 15 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<GB7COW<GB7YEW<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200115/0701Z 7390@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158
PM CST Tue Jan 14 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail and strong/gusty winds
may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the lower
Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians.
...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley and Southern
Appalachians... Strong mid/upper-level westerlies will overlie
much of the central/eastern CONUS today. Embedded within this
enhanced flow aloft, a shortwave trough will advance eastward from
the northern Plains/Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes region by this
evening. At the surface, a weak surface low is forecast to develop
northeastward from eastern KS to New England through the period. A
cold front attendant to this low will move southeastward across
parts of the southern Plains, lower MS Valley into the TN Valley,
and southern Appalachians by late tonight.
Although the primary large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave
trough should remain displaced to the north of the warm sector, a
southern-stream mid-level jet may provide enough lift to encourage
convective initiation along/ahead of the front by this afternoon
from southern AR to eastern TN. Greater low-level moisture,
characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints, should be
present across southern AR/northern MS and southwestern TN by peak
diurnal heating. Somewhat steepened low-level lapse rates along
with this low-level moisture should support around 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE this afternoon ahead of the front across this region.
Less instability (MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) should be present
across northern AL/GA, middle/eastern TN, and into far western NC,
as low-level moisture should remain more limited with northeastward
extent across the warm sector.
Any storms that can form and mature while moving eastward across
this region could become organized owing to strong mid-level
west-southwesterly flow supporting 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear.
Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and strong/gusty
winds producing occasional damage should be the main threats with
these storms this afternoon and early evening. Overall coverage
of convection still appears to remain rather isolated, and storms
should gradually weaken by late this evening with the loss of
daytime heating.
Although a favorable environment for severe storms will exist this
afternoon across parts of TX, negligible large-scale ascent aloft and
a low-level inversion should prevent storms from forming along the
front. Elevated storms behind the cold front may form across parts
of the southern Plains late tonight into early Thursday morning,
but instability should remain weak.
...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Strong shear will develop during
the afternoon and evening as a deepening low develops northeastward
toward the WA/BC Coast. Pronounced lift from low-level warm
advection will likely support widespread precipitation and gusty
gradient winds. However, forecast soundings show only meager
surface-based instability along the WA/OR Coast. Low-topped showers,
with occasional embedded thunderstorms, may affect this area during
the afternoon and evening with locally strong/gusty winds. But,
the probability of organized severe storms still appears low.
..Gleason/Nauslar.. 01/15/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244
AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday
along the West Coast and in the southern High Plains Thursday
night. No severe threat is expected across the CONUS.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward
onto the West Coast on Thursday. A few lightning strikes may occur
near the coast of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Further
east, an upper-level ridge will move across the Great Plains. At the
surface, a large area of high pressure will dominate the eastern half
of the CONUS. Southwest mid-level flow will become established in the
Great Plains Thursday night in the wake of the upper-level ridge. In
response, low-level flow will increase as weak instability develops
in the mid-levels. This could be enough for isolated thunderstorm
development late Thursday night mainly along the western edge of the
stronger low-level flow in far southwest New Mexico and West Texas.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Broyles.. 01/15/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern becomes more amplified today
with troughing over the Great Lakes and off the West Coast. At the
surface, a cold front will slide southward across the Plains and
Great Lakes and into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. As a result,
fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS.
..Nauslar.. 01/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper-level trough will move
into the western CONUS with another large upper-level trough exiting
the Northeast on Thursday. This will help push a cold front through
much of the Southeast and down to the Gulf Coast. Precipitation is
expected across portions of the southern Plains with winter mixed
precipitation likely from eastern New Mexico into southern Kansas.
This will increase fuel moisture values and likely minimize fire
potential through the weekend.
..Nauslar.. 01/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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