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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.01.20 07:04z 72 Lines 3684 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7353_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 14 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<XE1FH<
LW2DQC<LU9DCE
Sent: 200114/0700Z 7353@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123
PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY... Marginal hail or wind is possible from the lower
Mississippi Valley into northwest Georgia.
...Gulf States...
Large-scale ridging will remain anchored across low-latitudes with
the main core of westerlies extending from northern CA - central
Plains - southern New England. As a result, negligible height
changes will be noted across the Gulf States. As a result, a plume
of higher-PW air will continue to extend around the ridge from the
coastal plain of TX across LA/MS into AL. While diabatic heating
will not be particularly strong, and large-scale forcing will be
necessarily weak, there is some threat for marginally severe deep
convection across this region. Forecast soundings exhibit modest
lapse rates with ample deep-layer shear for at least organized
multi-cell updrafts, and perhaps a few weak supercells. Weak warm
advection amidst moist/buoyant profiles suggest some threat for
hail/wind with the most robust updrafts.
..Darrow/Nauslar.. 01/14/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251
AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms with hail and strong
wind gusts will be possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Wednesday afternoon and evening.
...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys... An upper-level trough and
associated 90 to 110 kt mid-level jet will move eastward across
the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front
will move quickly east-southeastward across the mid Mississippi
Valley. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place
with dewpoints in the lower 60s F in most of Tennessee and
Kentucky. As surface temperatures warm in the early afternoon,
scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of the front.
A line of storms may also develop along the front as well. Forecast
soundings at 21Z on Wednesday ahead of the front from Nashville
northeastward into southeast Kentucky show MUCAPE values from
500 to 1000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear of 55 to 65 kt. This should be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat with mixed convective mode.
Hail and a few damaging wind gusts can be expected, but the threat
should remain marginal due to relatively poor lapse rates. The
threat should diminish by early evening due to weakening instability.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5%
- Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Broyles.. 01/14/2020
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If A equals success, then the formula is _A = _X + _Y + _Z. _X is work.
_Y is play. _Z is keep your mouth shut.
-- Albert Einstein
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