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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.01.20 07:02z 371 Lines 18776 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 11 01
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200111/0700Z 7220@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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WW 8 TORNADO LA TX CW 110630Z - 111400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 8 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Western and central Louisiana Far
southeast Texas Coastal Waters
* Effective this Saturday morning from 1230 AM until 800 AM CST.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple
intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated
significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated large hail events to
1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Elongated squall line will progress east across the Sabine
Valley through western to central Louisiana early this morning with
a couple supercells possible ahead of the line. Damaging winds and
embedded tornadoes are anticipated.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles northwest of Monroe LA to 50
miles south southeast of Lake Charles LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5...WW 6...WW 7...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 23045.
...Grams
WW 7 TORNADO AR MO MS TN 110555Z - 111300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 7 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme eastern Arkansas Missouri
Bootheel Northwestern Mississippi Western Tennessee
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1155 PM
until 700 AM CST.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered
damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph
possible
SUMMARY...A band of strong-severe thunderstorms is expected to
proceed across the Mid-South area through the remainder of the
overnight hours, offering sporadic severe gusts and the threat for
a couple tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
either side of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Greenville
MS to 25 miles north northwest of Dyersburg TN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5...WW 6...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to
65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 24040.
...Edwards
WW 6 TORNADO TX CW 110305Z - 111000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 6 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 905 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Texas Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 905 PM
until 400 AM CST.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events
to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A band of strong-severe thunderstorms is forecast to
cross the watch area overnight, with the threat of damaging gusts,
along with a couple tornadoes possible. Any cells that can develop
and mature ahead of the line also may pose a tornado/wind threat.
Isolated severe hail cannot be ruled out.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
north and south of a line from 55 miles south southwest of College
Station TX to 60 miles northeast of Houston TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 4...WW 5...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm
motion vector 24040.
...Edwards
WW 5 TORNADO AR LA MO OK TX 102330Z - 110800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 5 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Arkansas Northwestern Louisiana
South-central Missouri Extreme southeastern Oklahoma Northeast and
east Texas
* Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 530 PM
until 200 AM CST.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple
intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated
significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated large hail events to
1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...An increasingly organized band of strong-severe
thunderstorms will cross the watch area tonight, offering severe wind
and a few tornadoes. Ahead of it, isolated supercells may mature
enough to produce tornadoes, strong-severe gusts and sporadic hail.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles south of Longview TX to 65
miles north northeast of West Plains MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 2...WW 3...WW 4...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 22040.
...Edwards
WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0008 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0007 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW PSX TO
25 WNW LBX TO 20 ESE UTS TO 30 N LFK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
..NAUSLAR..01/11/20
ATTN...WFO...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC039-071-167-201-291-321-373-407-110740-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON HARRIS
LIBERTY MATAGORDA POLK SAN JACINTO
GMZ335-350-355-110740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GALVESTON BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM
WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW LFK TO
25 W TXK TO 30 NE TXK TO 25 S HOT TO 30 N LIT TO 15 NNE BVX TO 30
WSW POF TO 10 N FAM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023
..NAUSLAR..01/11/20
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-025-027-039-041-043-045-053-057-063-067-069-
073-075-079-081-085-091-095-099-103-117-119-121-139-145-147- 110740-
AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA
DREW FAULKNER GRANT HEMPSTEAD INDEPENDENCE
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LONOKE MILLER MONROE
NEVADA OUACHITA PRAIRIE PULASKI
RANDOLPH UNION WHITE WOODRUFF
LAC013-015-017-027-031-081-119-110740-
LA
WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW COT TO
20 ENE HDO TO 20 NNE BAZ TO 15 SSE AUS TO 30 ESE TPL.
WW 4 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 110400Z.
..NAUSLAR..01/11/20
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 4
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC013-021-025-029-055-091-123-149-175-177-187-255-285-287-297-
311-325-493-110400-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA BASTROP BEE BEXAR
CALDWELL COMAL DEWITT FAYETTE
GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE KARNES LAVACA
LEE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MEDINA
WILSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TPL TO
20 E ACT TO 25 E DAL TO 30 N PRX.
..GOSS..01/11/20
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-119-139-145-161-213-223-231-257-277-289-293-331-349-379-
395-397-467-110340-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON DELTA ELLIS FALLS
FREESTONE HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT
KAUFMAN LAMAR LEON LIMESTONE
MILAM NAVARRO RAINS ROBERTSON
ROCKWALL VAN ZANDT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0024 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 6... FOR EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0024 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020
Areas affected...east Texas into Louisiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 6...
Valid 110606Z - 110800Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 6 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across eastern portions of
WW0006 with a downstream watch likely needed in the next hour.
Tornadoes and damaging winds will remain the severe threats.
DISCUSSION...A squall line stretching from the Ozarks to almost
Corpus Christi, TX continues to move eastward along a surface cold
front and leading edge of a strong upper-level trough. Strong flow
exists through the vertical profile, but much of the instability
resides above 700 mb with inversions present between 900-700 mb
per CRP and LCH soundings. Storms that have tried to develop ahead
of the line have struggled to intensify. However, the potential
for damaging winds remain possible given the ongoing squall line,
strong deep layer flow, including 50+ knots above 925 mb, and better
instability aloft. Additionally, tornadoes also remain possible
embedded within the line owing to favorable strong low-level veering
flow. Cell motion will remain northeastward with the overall line
propagation moving eastward. The line will likely continue into
the morning as it moves eastward.
..Nauslar/Edwards.. 01/11/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28929531 28549621 28449680 28549722 29729706 30619679
30809636 31179574 31229567 31269452 31059406 30799395 30179386
29719410 29569434 28929531
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN
OK 1022 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2020
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the the South-Central
States this afternoon and tonight...
* LOCATIONS... Central and southern Arkansas Northeast Texas
Northern Louisiana Southeast Oklahoma Northwest Mississippi Far
Southwest Tennessee
* HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several
tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size
* SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are likely across the
southern Great Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening, spreading
east into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The most dangerous
corridor for strong tornadoes and intense damaging winds should be
centered on northeast Texas through northern Louisiana and southern
Arkansas this evening through the overnight.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means
that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the
next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room
on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138
PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to spread across
the Mid South and central Gulf States today. Damaging winds and a
few tornadoes are possible. Localized damaging-wind threat will be
noted with convection across the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic.
...Discussion...
Intense 500mb speed max is translating through the base of a strong
short-wave trough over the southern Plains late this evening. This
feature should become negatively tilted during the day as flow
increases to near 120kt at 500mb over the OH Valley by early
evening. In response to this feature, primary surface low will
track along a polar front along the OH River into southeast IN. This
should allow modified warm sector to surge ahead of the front into
portions of the OH Valley. Even so, forecast soundings north of
the TN Valley do not exhibit much instability, and convection that
evolves ahead of the strongly-forced short wave should struggle
to produce lightning. Will maintain low severe probs for locally
damaging winds ahead of the intense speed max.
Of more concern will be convection that is ongoing at the start
of the period along a strong front near the MS River. Late this
evening, a well-organized squall line was advancing east across
AR/east TX toward LA. This activity is handled well by 00z model
guidance which surges a squall line into western MS by the start
of the day1 period. Earlier thoughts regarding this convective
scenario remain. Strongly sheared linear MCS is expected to advance
across the central Gulf States during the first half of the period.
Environmental shear strongly favors supercells but the primary
convective mode should be linear along a strongly forced boundary.
Damaging winds are the primary threat with this activity, though
embedded circulations could pose some tornado threat. It's not
entirely clear how much pre-frontal discrete convection will develop
due to limited heating. Even so, surface dew points rising into the
upper 60s should be adequate for surface-based supercells. Given
the forecast shear, tornadoes are certainly possible, especially
if discrete convection can develop ahead of the squall line.
Downstream across the Middle Atlantic, increasing southerly flow
will allow boundary-layer moisture to advance north across the
Carolinas into VA where 60s surface dew points are expected during
the overnight hours. While warm advection will undoubtedly encourage
showers across this region, the primary large-scale forcing will
spread across the OH Valley into the northern Middle Atlantic.
Forecast soundings suggest modest lapse rates which do not allow for
meaningful instability to materialize across this region. Despite
the strengthening wind fields, will opt to maintain 5% severe probs
due to weaker forcing and meager buoyancy.
..Darrow/Nauslar.. 01/11/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247
AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal wind damage
threat will be possible across parts of the eastern Carolinas
on Sunday.
...Eastern Carolinas... An upper-level trough will move eastward
across the central states on Sunday as southwest mid-level flow
remains in place across the eastern third of the nation. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to stall in northern North Carolina
on Sunday as low-level moisture remains maximized across the eastern
Carolinas. Weak destabilization is forecast to take place along
this corridor by Sunday afternoon where moderate deep-layer shear
may be enough for a marginal severe threat. A few thunderstorms
may develop as low-level convergence increases to the south of the
front. But lapse rates are forecast to be poor which should limit
updraft strength. The main threat would be for strong wind gusts
as instability peaks in the mid afternoon.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5%
- Marginal Hail: <5% - None
..Broyles.. 01/11/2020
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Baseball is a skilled game. It's America's game -- it, and high taxes.
-- Will Rogers
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