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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.01.20 07:03z 114 Lines 6330 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6910_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 10 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200110/0701Z 6910@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149
PM CST Thu Jan 09 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging winds are the
greatest severe risk, though tornadoes are possible along with very
large hail across the southern Plains.
...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough over AZ/northern Mexico, shifting east in line with latest
model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the
southern Rockies by 18z as 90+kt 500mb speed max rotates into the
base of the trough south of the Big Bend region. In response to
this trough, LLJ is forecast to increase across northwest TX which
will enhance low-level warm advection across western OK. Low-level
moisture is advancing northwest across OK and should aid buoyancy
for elevated convection between 12-14z. Forecast soundings suggest
elevated supercells are possible early in the period and this is
supported by CAMs with a cluster of convection that will spread
northeast across northern OK/southern KS. As this activity spreads
east into upper 50s/lower 60s dew points, convection will have an
opportunity to become surface based, though discrete cells may not
be particularly common as a polar front sags into this region.
Farther south, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across
west TX where surface-3km lapse rates are forecast to approach 9
C/km. At the same time, strong mid-level height falls will spread
across the southern Plains by peak heating, and thunderstorms should
easily develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate
plume. Latest thinking is scattered supercells will evolve from
east-central OK - north-central TX - southwestern TX between 19-21z.
This activity will be strongly sheared and could produce very large
hail early in the convective cycle. With time, multi-scale forcing
will encourage an extensive squall line that should race east toward
the Arklatex region. Damaging winds will likely be common along this
squall line as it advances across eastern OK/east TX during the
evening hours. Linear MCS will continue east during the overnight
hours, advancing to near the MS River toward the end of the period.
While damaging winds should be the primary threat with the squall
line, very strong shear and moist profiles will likely result in
embedded supercells. A few tornadoes are expected along the QLCS
but the lack of confidence in discrete pre-frontal supercells will
preclude more than 10% tornado probs during the day1 period.
..Darrow/Nauslar.. 01/10/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241
AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and
tornadoes are expected across parts of the southeastern U.S. on
Saturday.
...Southeast/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Carolinas... At the
beginning of the period, an upper-level trough will be located in
the southern Plains with a powerful 90 to 110 kt mid-level jet
in the Arklatex. At the surface, a low is forecast over the mid
Mississippi Valley with a cold front extending southward from the
low into southeast Arkansas and central Louisiana. A squall-line
should be ongoing at 12Z just ahead of the front with the line
moving eastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast
by midday. Ahead of the front, forecast soundings during the
morning show surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F with
MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This combined with strong deep-layer
shear associated with the mid-level jet, will create conditions
favorable for damaging wind gusts along the stronger parts of the
line. In addition, an impressive 60 to 80 kt low-level jet should
be in place in the lower Mississippi Valley. The low-level shear
created by the jet will be favorable for tornadoes along the more
organized parts of the line. A potential for strong tornadoes will
exist with rotating storms embedded in the line. A strong tornado
could also occur ahead of the line if a discrete supercell develops.
The squall-line is expected to contain a severe threat through
the morning and afternoon, reaching eastern Alabama, far western
Georgia and the Florida Panhandle by 00Z/Sunday.
The upper-level trough and associated low-level jet will move
northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley in the mid to
late afternoon and into the Ohio Valley by early evening. For
this reason, the most focused band of large-scale ascent should
move northeastward away from the central Gulf Coast states. In
response, the northern part of the squall-line may extend as far
north as central Kentucky where a marginal wind damage/tornado
threat could develop. This threat may extend eastward across the
southern Appalachians during the evening, possibly reaching the
Carolinas Saturday night. Increasing instability in South Carolina
and south-central North Carolina combined with the strong low-level
shear may be enough for a marginal wind damage/tornado threat from
late evening into the overnight.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 10% SIG - Enhanced Wind:
30% SIG - Enhanced Hail: 15% - Slight
..Broyles.. 01/10/2020
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The first duty of a revolutionary is to get away with it.
-- Abbie Hoffman
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