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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.01.20 07:04z 96 Lines 4899 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6652_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 04 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<
LU9DCE
Sent: 200104/0701Z 6652@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LINUX - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135
PM CST Fri Jan 03 2020
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday.
...Discussion...
Large-scale pattern will not be favorable for organized severe
thunderstorms during the day1 period; however, some thunder
potential will exist across the Southeast and along the Pacific
Northwest coast.
Intense large-scale height falls are forecast to spread across the
southern Appalachians into the southern Middle Atlantic during the
latter half of the period. These falls will be induced ahead of a
pronounced short-wave trough that will dig toward the Atlantic coast
by 05/06z. In response to this feature, a surface front will move
steadily south across the FL Peninsula by early evening. With the
primary corridor of large-scale forcing expected to remain north of
FL, weak low-level convergence along the wind shift is not expected
to prove particularly favorable for organized convection. Latest
CAMs support this with broken, weak convection along the wind shift
as it surges across the Peninsula.
Across the Pacific Northwest, moist onshore flow, combined with
steep surface-3km lapse rates, will remain favorable for scattered
showers that should develop offshore then spread toward the Pacific
coast. Much of this activity will remain lightning-free. However,
an isolated lightning flash can not be ruled out, and for these
reasons will maintain 10% thunder probability near the coast.
..Darrow.. 01/04/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136
PM CST Fri Jan 03 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis... Low-amplitude west/northwesterly deep layer flow will
envelop much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Sunday. A shortwave
trough near the Pacific coast Sunday morning will deepen some as it
tracks east to the Rockies by Monday morning. However, surface high
pressure will be dominant across much of the CONUS, with one area
centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico and another across the
western U.S. This will largely result in stable and dry conditions,
as Gulf return flow remains cut-off under high pressure and a cold
front penetrating deep into Mexico eastward toward the northwestern
Caribbean. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Leitman.. 01/04/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236
AM CST Sat Jan 04 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis...
An upper shortwave trough over the Rockies Monday morning will deepen
as it shifts east across the Plains toward the MS River by Tuesday
morning. In response, a weak surface low will develop over north
TX, and shift east/northeast toward the central Appalachians by the
end of the period. Ahead of this feature, southerly low level flow
will allow for modest moisture (mid 40s to low 50s F surface dew
points) to spread northward from the TX coast, eastward through the
lower MS/TN Valley vicinity. As a weak cold front tracks southeast
across the southern Plains toward the lower MS Valley overnight,
a few showers are possible. However, warm temperatures aloft and
modest boundary layer moisture will result in meager instability
and convection too shallow to support lightning production.
Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will overspread the western
U.S. Precipitation potential will be limited to higher elevation
showers/snow in moist westerly flow across the Cascades and northern
Rockies vicinities. Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS
on Monday.
..Leitman.. 01/04/2020
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Come, let us hasten to a higher plane, Where dyads tread the fairy fields
of Venn, Their indices bedecked from one to _n, Commingled in an endless
Markov chain!
-- Stanislaw Lem, "Cyberiad"
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