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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.01.20 07:03z 117 Lines 6132 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6500_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 03 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<
LU9DCE
Sent: 200103/0701Z 6500@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135
PM CST Thu Jan 02 2020
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts may
impact parts of eastern Alabama, western Georgia, and the Florida
Panhandle today.
...Southeast... An upper-level trough will move eastward across
the southern Plains today as southwest mid-level flow becomes
established across the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley as
a surface trough moves eastward across the Carolinas, Georgia and
Florida Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorm may be ongoing near the
surface trough this morning with some increase in thunderstorm
coverage by early afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
and lower 70s combined warming surface temperatures will result in
weak destabilization ahead of the surface trough by midday. This
combined with 60 to 70 kt of 0-6 km shear should be sufficient for
a marginal severe threat. As the convective line moves eastward
across the region, the stronger segments within the line could
produce isolated damaging wind gusts. The threat should be highest
in the afternoon when instability will be maximized.
..Broyles/Cook.. 01/03/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154
PM CST Thu Jan 02 2020
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday.
...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will quickly shift
eastward from the central states Saturday morning, to just offshore
the Atlantic coast by Sunday morning. At the surface, low pressure
over PA will deepen as it tracks east/northeast across southern New
England toward Cape Cod by evening. Meanwhile, an effective cold
front will stretch from near the Outer Banks into the northern
FL Peninsula during the morning and quickly shift east/southeast
through the afternoon, moving offshore the FL coast by evening.
Strong deep layer westerly flow will be in place across the
southeastern U.S. with some weak low-level directional shear
resulting in vertical profiles supportive of supercells. However,
warm midlevel temperatures will widespread cloudiness will result
in meager instability, despite surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
to near 70 F. Furthermore, low level convergence along the front
will weaken with southward extent as the surface low and upper
forcing become increasingly displaced to the north/northeast of
the region. While showers and a few thunderstorms may be ongoing
Saturday morning, convective potential will diminish with time and
southward extent into the afternoon hours, and severe storms are
not anticipated.
Elsewhere, a couple of lightning strikes are possible near the
Pacific coast of WA and northwest OR as a series of upper shortwave
troughs migrate through low-amplitude westerly flow.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Leitman.. 01/03/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2020
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An amplified pattern will keep conditions generally
unfavorable for fire weather today as a strong mid-level trough
migrates southeastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and an
upstream trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. At the surface,
a composite outflow/synoptic boundary will shift southeastward
across the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico, while strong high pressure
resides across the central Rockies. Northwesterly surface flow
will become common across much of Texas and far western Oklahoma,
although minimum RH values in the 27-35% range should keep most
fire-weather concerns to a minimum. A few areas of gusty offshore
winds are also possible across the San Diego County mountains,
although fuels are generally unfavorable for fire spread in these
areas and RH values should remain well above critical thresholds.
..Cook.. 01/03/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2020
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Areas of breezy and dry conditions will develop
across portions of the western OK/TX Panhandles and adjacent areas
of southeastern Colorado/southwestern Kansas during the afternoon.
Lee troughing will organize through the morning across the region
in response to an approaching mid-level wave across the Rockies
and attendant strengthening mid-level flow. A few areas will
experience 20-25 mph south-southwesterly winds along and west of
the surface trough along with 15-25% RH values. Ordinarily these
conditions would support an elevated delineation, although recent
rainfall casts some doubt on the ability of fine fuels to carry
fire in this regime. Thus, highlights will be withheld, though
atmospheric trends will be monitored.
..Cook.. 01/03/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Systems programmers are the high priests of a low cult.
-- R. S. Barton
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