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LU9DCE > ALERT 02.01.20 07:03z 165 Lines 9275 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6354_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 02 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 200102/0700Z 6354@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155
PM CST Wed Jan 01 2020
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of
the central Gulf coast today, accompanied by a risk for damaging
wind gusts and a tornado or two.
...Central Gulf Coast States... A low-amplitude upper-level
ridge will move northeastward today across the Gulf Coast States
as southwest mid-level flow becomes established from the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold
front will advance southeastward across the southern Plains as
moisture advection, associated with a 50 to 60 kt low-level jet,
takes place in the lower Mississippi Valley. In response, surface
dewpoints should increase in the mid to upper 60s F across parts of
the region. Although cloud cover should minimize surface heating,
weak instability should still be in place by afternoon across
southeast Louisiana and south-central Mississippi. Thunderstorms
appear likely to develop around midday along the northwestern
edge of the moist sector from central Louisiana into central
Mississippi. This convective line should gradually organize and
move eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf
Coast States this afternoon.
Although mid-level flow will be anticyclonic across the Gulf Coast
States today, an 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will cause deep-layer
shear to steadily increase. Forecast soundings this afternoon at
Baton Rouge, LA and Hattiesburg, MS increase 0-6 km shear values
into the 65 to 75 kt range. This combined with strong speed shear
and some directional shear in the lowest 1 km AGL will likely
result in a severe threat. A conditional potential for rotating
storms may develop with cells that initiate ahead of the squall
line. Rotating cells will also be possible along the stronger parts
of the line. Due to the strong low-level shear with 0-3 km storm
relative helicity near 400 m2/s2, the stronger rotating storms may
obtain a tornado threat. A couple tornadoes will be possible across
southeast Louisiana and south-central Mississippi. The more organized
cells may also produce damaging wind gusts with a few damaging wind
gusts also accompanying the stronger segments of the squall-line.
..Broyles.. 01/02/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155
PM CST Wed Jan 01 2020
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the northeast
Gulf coast vicinity Friday, perhaps accompanied by at least some
risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis... Initially broad and amplified mid-level ridging
spreading inland of the Pacific coast appears likely to begin to
become suppressed, with its remnant axis shifting from the Canadian
Rockies and Cascades into the Canadian Prairies and northern
U.S. Rockies, as a significant short wave trough accelerates from
the mid-latitude Pacific through the Pacific Northwest by late
Friday night. The progression of this impulse probably will also
begin to flatten lower latitude ridging, initially extending from
the subtropical eastern Pacific into California..
With broad downstream ridging forecast to remain strong, and perhaps
build further, near/east of the Atlantic Seaboard, developments over
the interior U.S. Friday through Friday night remain more unclear.
There may be a continued gradual consolidation of multiple branches
of westerlies within evolving large-scale troughing across the Plains
into the western slopes of the Appalachians. In general, it does
appear that a wave within one stream will amplify while digging
southeastward through the Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys,
to the lee of the remnant western ridging. As this occurs, troughing
initially over the southern Plains/lower Rio Grande Valley vicinity
probably will undergo considerable shearing, while tending to
accelerate northeastward to the west of the western Atlantic ridging.
However, sizable spread persists, particularly within the ensemble
output of the various models, concerning these and other related
developments, including possible cyclogenesis to the east of the
Mississippi Valley. In general, it does appear that a gradual
transition to cyclonic flow aloft and associated mid-level height
falls will slowly shift from the Mississippi Valley into the
Southeast, mainly Friday night. This will be accompanied by a
cold front, which may trail southward from a developing surface low
approaching the upper Ohio Valley by 12Z Saturday. This probably
will be preceded by another front, a portion of which may remain
quasi-stationary to the east of the southern Appalachians, and along
which there may be another evolving frontal wave by late Friday
night, while a trailing segment slowly advances eastward across
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and eastern Gulf/south Atlantic
coast states.
...Southeast... Models indicate that strong southerly return flow
(including 50-70 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) around the western
periphery of the Atlantic ridging will allow for another surge or
two of seasonably high moisture content in a narrow plume off the
Gulf of Mexico, ahead of the lead surface front. This may include
mid/upper 60s+ surface dew points in a corridor across the Florida
Panhandle through parts of southeastern Alabama and southwestern
Georgia, which may be enough to contribute to weak boundary-layer
based CAPE up to around 500 J/kg.
Given weak boundary-layer instability, the presence of strong deep
layer mean wind fields and shear may contribute to an environment
conditionally supportive of an organized cluster of storms and/or a
couple of supercells, which could pose a risk for a tornado or two,
in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts. However, forcing
to initiate any such activity remains uncertain at the present time.
Farther north, along pre-frontal surface troughing developing
during the day Friday across central Georgia into the Carolina
piedmont, it still appears unlikely that the thermodynamic profile
evolution will allow for sufficient CAPE to support an appreciable
risk for severe weather. However, it may not be completely out of
the question, and trends will need to continue to be monitored in
later outlook updates for this time period.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None
..Kerr.. 01/02/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2020
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will be in place across
the CONUS with a large-scale trough centered over the Great
Plains. East of this trough, high precipitable-water air will
stream northward with significant rainfall expected for most of
the eastern CONUS the next 2 days. In the west, cool and mostly
dry conditions will be present as high pressure is located over
the central Rockies. Some dry and breezy conditions will be present
west of the cold front across Texas, but fuels are only marginally
dry, and the relative humidity is not expected to be dry enough to
warrant a fire weather outlook area.
..Bentley.. 01/02/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2020
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper-level trough will be over the
mid-Mississippi Valley and will continue to move eastward with moist
conditions and significant rainfall expected ahead of it. West of
this trough, dry and cool conditions will be present for most of
the western 2/3rds of the CONUS. Some dry and breezy conditions
are expected across much of Texas, but relative humidity is not
expected to be dry enough for any fire weather concerns.
..Bentley.. 01/02/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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<Overfiend> partycle: I seriously do need a vacation from this
package. I actually had a DREAM about introducing a stupid new
bug into xbase-preinst last night. That's a Bad Sign.
-- Seen on #Debian shortly before the release of Debian 2.0
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