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LU9DCE > ALERT    01.01.20 07:04z 119 Lines 6597 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6286_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 01 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 200101/0701Z 6286@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19

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               ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128
PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies today. A few
thunderstorms might also occur from south through eastern Texas into
western Louisiana Wednesday night. No severe weather is expected.
...Northwestern US/Northern Rockies...
Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the western US
later today as a pronounced 500mb jet digs across Oregon, through NV,
into the lower Colorado River Valley by sunrise Thursday. Very steep
lapse rates will be noted north-east of the digging jet as 500mb
temperatures approach -30C. Large-scale ascent within exit region
of the aforementioned jet should aid mid-level moistening such that
weak elevated instability will become increasingly supportive of
convection. While profiles will be rather cold, it appears adequate
buoyancy will exist for at least some potential for lightning within
the strongest convection.
...Texas/Louisiana...
Strong low-latitude jet is forecast to extend across Mexico into
TX ahead of a strong upper trough. This feature should begin to
eject east in response to western US digging speed max. Downstream,
models suggest low-level warm advection will increase along the
TX coast as LLJ strengthens then lifts into LA. While a coastal
boundary should struggle to move inland during the day1 period,
a few elevated thunderstorms are expected north of the wind shift
as mid-levels moisten amidst steepening lapse rates.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 01/01/2020
 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140
PM CST Tue Dec 31 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...  Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the north
central Gulf coast region Thursday into Thursday night, with at
least some potential for a couple to become severe, accompanied by
a risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two.
...Synopsis...  Amplifying mid/upper ridging to the north of
a prominent high over the subtropical eastern Pacific may build
further while shifting inland of the Pacific coast, through the
Canadian Rockies and much of the U.S. intermountain region during
this period.  Ridging is also forecast to build downstream, north
of a subtropical high centered near the Caribbean, through much of
the Atlantic Seaboard.  In between, larger-scale troughing over
the interior of North America may begin to consolidate somewhat.
However, short wave developments within the multiple branches of flow
remain rather uncertain due sizable spread and low predictability
still evident in the various model output, including their associated
ensembles.
One significant short wave impulse, in particular, may be in the
process of digging near the southern Rockies at the outset of the
period.  However, model output concerning this feature now appears
to be trending toward continued strong digging into/southwest and
south of the Texas Big Bend region Thursday through Thursday night,
as opposed to turning eastward into the southern Plains.
As a result, within broad surface troughing, likely to encompass
much of the Plains and Mississippi Valley southward across the
lower Rio Grande Valley and northwestern Gulf coast at 12Z Thursday,
models have trended weaker with a surface low migrating northeastward
out of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region.  Guidance also appears
more subtle with a frontal wave emerging from the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico.
Still, though, strengthening southerly return flow appears
likely to be accompanied by an inland influx of seasonably high
precipitable water (1.5-1.75+ inches) within at least a narrow
plume across the Louisiana coast toward the Cumberland Plateau.
And an inland advancing surface warm front probably will allow for
mid 60s+ surface dew points to advect across at least southeastern
Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle Thursday morning through Thursday night.  Despite generally
weak lapse rates, forecast soundings indicate that this should be
accompanied by the development of weak boundary layer instability.
...North central Gulf coast...  Widespread convection and associated
rain may remain focused to the north of the inland advancing warm
front through much of the period.  And it now appears increasingly
probable that mid/upper flow may remain broadly anticyclonic across
much of the lower Mississippi Valley through Southeast until a
gradual transition to cyclonic flow takes place across the lower
Mississippi Valley Thursday night.
While forcing to support thunderstorm development in the warm sector
remains unclear, given weak boundary layer destabilization in the
presence of lower/mid tropospheric wind fields that may include
speeds of 50-70 kts in the 850-700 mb layer, the environment
may become at least conditionally supportive of organized severe
storm development.  This could include a couple of supercells,
with discrete storm development perhaps aided by confluence along
the southerly 850 mb jet axis across southeastern Louisiana and
Mississippi during the day.
Thursday night, upscale growing convection along an eastward
advancing frontal segment, across coastal areas near/east of the
Mississippi River, may be accompanied by a risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   2%     - Marginal Wind:
5%     - Marginal Hail:     <5%     - None
..Kerr.. 01/01/2020

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Govern a great nation as you would cook a small fish.  Don't overdo it.
		-- Lao Tsu

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