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LU9DCE > ALERT    29.12.19 07:13z 137 Lines 7806 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6087_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 29 12
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 191229/0700Z 6087@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19

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           / (_/\) \/ (\__  )) D (( (__  ) _)    ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
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               ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
                   BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
                      LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155
PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MS AND TN VALLEYS EAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...  Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may impact
parts of the Mid-South and central Gulf States Sunday afternoon
and evening, with at least some potential for damaging wind gusts
and/or a tornado or two.
...Synopsis...  While a northeastern Pacific upper low digs
south-southeastward toward/along the California coast through the
second half of the period, the more substantial feature with respect
to deep convection will be the large upper trough/low initially
centered over the Plains states, moving slowly eastward while
deepening with time.  More specifically, an energetic short-wave
feature -- rotating east across Texas early in the period -- is
progged to turn more northeastward as it rounds the base of the
larger-scale trough, and then shift into the Midwest/Ohio Valley
overnight.
As this system rounds the base of the main trough, weak cyclogenesis
is progged to begin over the western Tennessee vicinity during the
afternoon, along the eastward-moving cold front.  The low is then
expected to deepen rapidly while shifting northward across the Ohio
Valley toward the Upper Great Lakes, in tandem with the parent upper
disturbance.  Meanwhile, the trailing cold front should cross the
lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and then accelerate
eastward across the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley
before reaching the Appalachian crest late in the period.
...Lower MS and TN valleys east to the southern Appalachians...
A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing at the
start of the period in the vicinity of the advancing cold front --
from the lower Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley area, southwestward
into southeast Texas.  Very weak lapse rates/instability across the
warm sector should largely hinder convective intensity through the
day, though very strong flow/shear will support local/occasionally
stronger storms, and attendant/low-end risk for wind and/or a brief
tornado.  Severe potential may become maximized in the 22z to 02z
time frame, in the vicinity of the Mississippi/Alabama border and
eastward into central and northern Alabama, as cyclogenesis begins
in response to the northeastward ejection of the upper short-wave
trough across the mid Mississippi Valley area.  However, despite
favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, and a relatively moist
boundary layer, sufficient CAPE development to support enhanced
severe weather coverage remains questionable.  As such, will refrain
from a SLGT risk/5% tornado area upgrade at this time.
Overnight, as the front accelerates eastward, a narrow, forced
convective line will cross the eastern half of the MRGL risk area,
posing a continued/low-end severe risk through the end of the period.
..Goss/Bentley.. 12/29/2019
 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150
PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...  A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact areas near
and west of the I-95 corridor, from Richmond, Virginia to Raleigh,
North Carolina, Monday afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather.
...Synopsis...  Much of the U.S. will remain under the influence
of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific.  This flow
is expected to remain split downstream of amplified, positively
tilted ridging developing over the eastern Pacific by 12Z Monday.
As the crest of this feature gradually noses inland of the Pacific
Northwest coast, a fairly significant closed low, evolving from a
perturbation beginning to split off the main branch of westerlies
today, appears likely to continue digging from near the southern
California coast toward the spur of Baja.
At the same time, within a separate branch to the north, and farther
downstream, models continue to indicate that the center of a broader
and deeper mid-level low may begin to redevelop northeastward across
parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.  This may be
mostly in response to the progression of one or two short wave
perturbations pivoting around its eastern and northern periphery,
which probably will also contribute to substantive mid-level height
falls across the lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic region during
the day Monday.
The primary occluding surface cyclone probably will remain centered
beneath the mid-level low, but models continue to indicate that
modest surface cyclogenesis may initiate within surface troughing
to the lee of the central Appalachians, before migrating offshore
of the northern Mid Atlantic coast Monday evening.  As this occurs,
after advancing east of the Appalachians, a trailing cold front is
expected to progress offshore of the middle and southern Atlantic
Seaboard (except the Florida Peninsula) by daybreak Tuesday.
...Atlantic Seaboard...  Inland of coastal areas, pre-frontal
convective development, mostly rooted in very weak instability based
both near and above the surface, generally appears likely to be in
the process of waning early Monday.  While the warm sector boundary
layer is expected to remain fairly moist, with mid 60s+ surface dew
points across much of the middle and southern Atlantic Coast states,
warming and drying associated with mid-level subsidence nosing
northeastward to the lee of the southern and central Appalachians
is expected to become increasingly inhibitive of renewed convection.
One exception may be a corridor along the lee surface trough,
near the northwestern periphery of the dry slot, across the
piedmont of north central North Carolina into southeast Virginia
(roughly near/west of I-95 between Raleigh NC and Richmond VA).
This is where weak mid-level cooling and boundary layer warming may
allow for sufficient destabilization to support the initiation of
at least a couple of storms by Monday afternoon, in the presence
of strong vertical shear.
The operational NAM remains among the most bullish concerning
boundary layer destabilization, with mixed layer CAPE now forecast
as large as 750-1000 J/kg.  This may be high, but even more modest
values around 500 J/kg may contribute to an environment conducive
to supercells, with thermodynamic and kinematic profiles supportive
of a risk for marginally severe hail, locally strong surface gusts
and perhaps some potential for a tornado.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:   2%     - Marginal Wind:
5%     - Marginal Hail:      5%     - Marginal
..Kerr.. 12/29/2019

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

No, I'm not interested in developing a powerful brain.	All I'm after is
just a mediocre brain, something like the president of American Telephone
and Telegraph Company.
		-- Alan Turing on the possibilities of a thinking
		   machine, 1943.

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