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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.12.19 07:02z 158 Lines 8877 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6033_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 28 12
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 191228/0701Z 6033@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144
PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TO THE ARKLATEX...AND EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from I-35 in
Oklahoma and southeast Kansas eastward toward the Mississippi River
through tonight. Localized wind damage is most likely, although a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
...Synopsis... An upper trough will move into the Plains with a lead
wave moving from west TX into OK during the day, and from eastern
KS into IA during the evening. Coincident with this shortwave
trough will be strong cooling aloft north of an intensifying mid
to upper jet with speeds of 100 to 150 kt respectively from eastern
OK into MO.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen from western OK into
east-central KS during the day, with boundary-layer dewpoints
increasing into the mid 50s F ahead of a cold front and dryline. The
cold front should be near I-35 in KS by late afternoon, with a
dryline bulging into central OK. Aiding moisture transport will be
an intensifying low-level jet, with a 50+ kt southerly 850 mb jet
expected from the Arklatex into MO by 00Z.
Meanwhile, dewpoints into the mid 60s F will be drawn north across
the lower MS Valley, well south of the upper wave but with a wind
shift approaching toward the end of the period.
...I-35 in OK and KS eastward to the MS River... Scattered
thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at 12Z this morning along
the cold front, and near the developing surface low from northwest
TX into western OK. Forecast soundings indicate that most of this
activity will be elevated through about midday, when up to 500
J/kg SBCAPE is forecast to develop. Forcing for ascent will also
increase throughout the day, and early-day showers and storms
may slowly evolve into isolated strong or severe storms by late
afternoon. Several CAMs suggest consolidating line segments over
north-central OK and into southeast KS from late afternoon into
the evening, and this appears to be the most favorable area for
localized wind damage or perhaps a brief tornado. The threat is
highly conditional on instability, which could also be less than
forecast.
East of the KS/OK area, and during the evening and overnight, other
line segments, perhaps a loose QLCS, are expected to threaten parts
of southern MO and AR. Weak instability may prove sufficient to
support damaging wind gusts as shear will be very strong.
For far southern areas, including TX, LA, and MS, better low-level
moisture may interact with the front/wind shift after 03-06Z.
However, lift will be weak in these areas, though a few stronger
storms may produce locally gusty winds. A few pre-frontal storms
are also possible over northern MS into western TN where low-level
moisture will deepen beneath persistent southerly winds just off
the surface. Instability will again be the limiting factor as
lapse rates aloft will be poor, but veering wind profiles offer a
conditional threat of a severe storm.
..Jewell/Bentley.. 12/28/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130
PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Mid
South and central Gulf States vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening,
with at least some potential for a few to become severe, accompanied
by a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.
...Synopsis... Large-scale mid/upper troughing likely will
encompass much of the Rockies, Plains and Mississippi Valley by
12Z Sunday, with a fairly deep embedded occluding cyclone centered
over the mid Missouri Valley region and a significant short wave
impulse turning eastward into the base of the trough across the
southern Plains. The short wave is forecast to remain progressive,
and models suggest that it will pivot in negatively-tilted fashion
while accelerating across the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley
region, around the southeastern periphery of the cyclone, as another
significant short wave perturbation digs toward the southern
California coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by
considerable intensification of lower/mid tropospheric wind fields
across much of the Mississippi Valley through the Appalachians,
and may contribute to support for renewed cyclogenesis across the
Great Lakes region by late Sunday night.
While the initial and developing secondary surface cyclones may
encompass a broad area, with a potentially sizable warm sector,
it still appears that considerable cloud cover, associated rain,
and otherwise generally weak lapse rates will inhibit boundary
layer destabilization, particularly from the Ohio River northward.
Even east of the lower Mississippi Valley, where surface dew points
are forecast to increase through the 60s, models continue to indicate
that mixed-layer CAPE may maximize in the 250-500 J/kg range Sunday
afternoon and evening.
...Mid South/central Gulf States... Severe weather potential for
Sunday through Sunday night still appears largely conditioned
on sufficient warm sector destabilization. East of the lower
Mississippi Valley, forecast soundings indicate moist low-level
profiles supportive of boundary-layer based instability, though
with very limited CAPE due to weak lapse rates. It is still not
certain that this environment will become supportive of appreciable
severe weather potential, but it might marginally be enough given
the forecast strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields
through the day, and favorable large-scale forcing for ascent.
South to southwesterly winds in the 850-500 mb layer, within the
warm sector, are forecast to strengthen to 50-70+ kt through the day
across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Vertical shear
for boundary-layer based storms will be strong and conducive to
organized severe convection, including potential for one or more
evolving lines and discrete supercells.
At least some model output suggests that a developing low-level
confluence zone could become one focus for the initiation and
intensification of storms, well ahead of the surface cold front,
across Alabama into eastern Tennessee by late Sunday afternoon.
However, confidence is greater that a corridor of forcing for ascent,
along/just ahead of the eastward advancing front, will become the
primary focus for any possible vigorous convective development.
It appears that this may advance east of the lower Mississippi Valley
by early afternoon, before continuing northeastward and eastward
through the Tennessee Valley and at least northern portions of
Mississippi/Alabama by Sunday evening.
Potentially damaging surface gusts aided by downward momentum
transport seems the most prominent/widespread possible severe hazard,
but a couple of isolated tornadoes may not be out of the question.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None
..Kerr.. 12/28/2019
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... On Sunday, a strong surface low will be present
across the Upper Midwest. This large system will bring significant
precipitation to much of the eastern CONUS. Some dry conditions
will be present behind the cold front in far southern Texas along
the Rio Grande Sunday afternoon. Winds will be in the 15 to 20 mph
range with relative humidity in the 15 to 25 percent range. Despite
somewhat favorable meteorological conditions for fire spread, fuels
across this area are very moist and the threat for large fires will
remain low.
..Bentley.. 12/28/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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No problem is insoluble.
-- Dr. Janet Wallace, "The Deadly Years", stardate 3479.4
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