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LU9DCE > ALERT 27.12.19 07:05z 135 Lines 7626 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5963_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 27 12
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<NS2B<VA7RBP<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 191227/0701Z 5963@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059
PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected over eastern
New Mexico and west Texas, mainly during the evening and overnight
hours. A marginally severe storm is possible.
...Synopsis... An upper trough will become elongated from MT
southward into the Four Corners states as one upper low moves
east across AZ and NM, and another drops south across MT. Ahead of
the upper trough, meridional winds aloft will strengthen over the
central and southern High Plains, with cooling aloft spreading into
these areas overnight.
At the surface, high pressure will move from the mid MO Valley
toward the OH Valley, beneath shortwave ridging aloft. To the west,
low pressure will develop from CO into west TX, with a cold front
from western NE/KS into west TX by early Saturday. Meanwhile,
a warm front will lift slowly northward from north TX into OK,
with dewpoints into the mid 50s F to I-40 in OK by 12Z Saturday.
...Southern and central High Plains... Lift will increase during the
day over northeast NM into eastern CO and western KS as relatively
warm/moist air overspreads a cool air mass at the surface. The result
will be scattered elevated thunderstorms. While weak instability
will mitigate overall hail threat despite favorable effective shear,
minimal melting potential may support very small hail with a few
of the elevated cores.
To the south, surface convergence will be maximized over eastern NM
into southwest TX during the late afternoon, where backed surface
winds in the moist sector meet veering winds with the cold front.
Heating and subsequent steepening of low-level lapse rates east of
the wind shift are in question, but at least a small area of heating
is likely over southeast NM into southwest TX, where 250-500 J/kg
MLCAPE may develop. Isolated storms are expected along the front by
around 00Z in eastern NM, then spreading into TX during the evening
with increasing coverage near the front. The late initiation,
as well as meridional nature of the trough suggest a low threat of
severe, but a conditional threat of a supercell exists due to briefly
favorable wind profiles. This scenario would support marginal hail,
or perhaps a weak/brief tornado before midlevel winds back and
low-level winds veer.
..Jewell/Bentley.. 12/27/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130
PM CST Thu Dec 26 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern
Plains into Ozark Plateau late Saturday afternoon and evening, with
at least some potential for a few to become severe, accompanied by
a risk for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. This could
spread into the lower Mississippi Valley by late Saturday night.
...Synopsis... Troughing within initially split branches
of mid-latitude westerlies, now inland of the Pacific coast, is
forecast to come increasingly in phase across and east of the Rockies
by 12Z Saturday. Within this regime, it still appears that one
southern branch short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest will
contribute to the initiation of significant lower/mid tropospheric
cyclogenesis across the central Plains into Upper Midwest Saturday
through Saturday night.
In response to this development, and associated strengthening
southerly return flow, models indicate there will be at least
modest low-level moisture return off the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico through the southeastern Plains and Mississippi Valley.
This may include precipitable water increasing to 1.25-1.50+ inches,
and surface dew points increasing through the upper 50s to lower
60s F as far north as the Ozark Plateau by Saturday evening.
Given the nature of the evolving mid/upper flow regime, it appears
unlikely that deep elevated mixed-layer air will emerge from the
Plateau region and overspread the low-level moisture return east of
the Rockies. Models continue to suggest that this will considerably
limit CAPE. However, given the favorable large-scale forcing for
ascent, considerable low-topped convection appears likely across
portions of the central and southern Plains into the lower/middle
Mississippi Valley. This probably will include at least some
thunderstorm activity. In the presence of strengthening lower/mid
tropospheric wind fields, particularly by Saturday evening, the
environment could become at least marginally conducive to organized
severe thunderstorm activity.
...Ozark Plateau/adjacent southern Plains/Mississippi Valley...
Within the warm sector of the deepening surface cyclone, there seems
relatively decent agreement among model output with the southern
periphery of stronger mid-level forcing for ascent overspreading
parts of southeastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma into southwest
Missouri and western Arkansas between 28/21Z-29/00Z. A bit more
uncertainty exists concerning where this forcing will begin to
encounter the northwestern periphery of the favorable moisture
return. However, once it does, coincident with strengthening
lower/mid tropospheric wind fields and shear, there appears potential
for the environment to become marginally conducive to organized
severe storms.
Aided by warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer, this may include
discrete supercells, at least initially, preceding an eastward
advancing cold front which may contribute to forcing for one
or two evolving lines of storms. Although mixed-layer CAPE may
remain mostly below 500 J/kg, sizable clockwise curved low-level
hodographs will provide at least a conditional risk for tornadoes.
Otherwise, downward transfer of momentum will contribute to the
risk for potentially damaging wind gusts in stronger convection,
which will tend to advect northeastward/eastward toward the middle
Mississippi Valley through Saturday evening.
Additional strong thunderstorm development appears possible ahead of
the southeastward advancing cold front across the northwestern Gulf
coast/lower Mississippi Valley by late Saturday night, as mid/upper
support perhaps begins to increase ahead of another perturbation
digging into the southern Plains. However, weaker low-level wind
fields and shear may tend to increasingly mitigate severe weather
potential with southward extent toward coastal areas.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None
..Kerr.. 12/27/2019
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No man is useless who has a friend, and if we are loved we are indispensable.
-- Robert Louis Stevenson
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