| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 27.11.19 07:11z 303 Lines 15312 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3784_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 27 11
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IQ5KG<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 191127/0700Z 3784@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
WW 696 TORNADO IL MO 270420Z - 270900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Central and southern Illinois
Southeast Missouri
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1020 PM
until 300 AM CST.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A couple thunderstorm clusters will rapidly progress from
eastern Missouri into portions of central and southern Illinois.
Weak instability will be a limiting factor, but scattered damaging
winds and a couple brief tornadoes will remain possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 10 miles east of Carbondale IL to 45
miles east northeast of Quincy IL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 695...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to
60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm
motion vector 24050.
...Grams
WW 0696 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 696
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FAM TO
25 E ALN TO 25 N SPI.
..GRAMS..11/27/19
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 696
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-021-025-027-049-051-055-065-077-081-121-135-145-157-167-
173-189-191-270740-
IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON
EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN HAMILTON
JACKSON JEFFERSON MARION MONTGOMERY PERRY
RANDOLPH SANGAMON SHELBY WASHINGTON
WAYNE
MOC157-270740-
MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PERRY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION
ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
WW 0695 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 695
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E VIH TO
20 NNE VIH TO 30 WSW UIN.
..SPC..11/27/19
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 695
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC071-073-093-099-113-123-127-139-163-173-179-183-186-187-189-
219-221-510-270540-
MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN GASCONADE IRON JEFFERSON
LINCOLN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY
PIKE RALLS REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS WARREN
WASHINGTON
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0694 Status Updates
WW 0693 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 693
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ESF TO
35 NNE GWO.
WW 693 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270400Z.
..NAUSLAR..11/27/19
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 693
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC029-270400-
LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CONCORDIA
MSC015-043-051-163-270400-
MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL GRENADA HOLMES YAZOO
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 2167 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 2167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019
Areas affected...Central MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 270624Z - 270800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A tornado or two and locally damaging winds will remain
possible through about 09Z, with environment expected to become
less favorable later this morning.
DISCUSSION...Supercell embedded within a small thunderstorm cluster
just southeast of Jackson intensified and produced a TDS in southern
Rankin county. This intensification appeared to occur coincident
with the northeast extent of near 70 surface dew points overlapping
the southern periphery of 1-km AGL southwesterlies in excess of 55
kt. The threat for an additional tornado or two might persist for
a few more hours with this cluster. The broader expectation is for
the environment to become less favorable for sustaining supercell
structures as the southern periphery of the strong low-level jet
shifts east and flow becomes increasingly veered, especially after
09Z. This will likely result in increasing separation of enlarged
low-level hodographs from the plume of modest buoyancy centered
farther west/southwest on the Sabine Valley.
..Grams/Edwards.. 11/27/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...
LAT...LON 31949010 32968980 33468932 33408883 32768868 32148881
31718920 31508961 31559006 31949010
MD 2166 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 696... FOR ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 2166 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019
Areas affected...Illinois
Concerning...Tornado Watch 696...
Valid 270532Z - 270730Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 696 continues.
SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms, with some severe potential, will
spread across much of Illinois into the early morning hours. Locally
damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado are possible. New ww
is not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Exit region of intense mid-level jet will spread across
the mid MS Valley region tonight. This focused zone of ascent should
encourage convection along northern edge of recovering warm sector.
Latest radar/lightning data supports this with scattered strong
thunderstorms noted ahead of surface low from southeast IA, arcing
across northwestern IL - west central IL. This activity should
spread northeast within a highly diffluent flow regime, but should
advance beyond the most buoyant corridor of instability over the
next few hours. Locally strong wind gusts are the primary threat,
though a brief tornado can not be ruled out where surface dew points
have risen into the upper 50s.
..Darrow.. 11/27/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 41098943 40958787 39438750 38858799 39708893 40389011
41098943
MD 2163 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019
Areas affected...portions of Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 270320Z - 270915Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is likely to continue and develop
across portions of southern, central, and northern Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are
expected.
DISCUSSION...A strong surface cyclone continues to deepen over the
Midwest and the surface low is expected to continue track northeast
from northern Missouri through Iowa into Wisconsin. Isentropic lift
and frontogenesis with steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to
produce widespread moderate snowfall with locally heavy snowfall.
Snowfall will spread northeast from southern Minnesota toward Lake
Superior paralleling the track of the surface low to the south.
Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour can be expected into the
early morning with local lake effect enhancements possible along
the western and southern shores of Lake Superior.
..Nauslar/Grams.. 11/27/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...
LAT...LON 45928916 44839004 44219157 43969242 44039386 44199547
44509613 44879614 45679536 46299441 46789361 46999252 47199164
47129049 46608918 45928916
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148
PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur today across parts of
the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic, as well as portions of
the Southeast and California. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.
...Great Lakes to Southern New England... A mature cyclone with a
very strong mid/upper-level jet will move eastward over the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a low initially over southern
WI and adjacent Lake Michigan will develop east-northeastward into
southern Ontario/Quebec by this evening. A cold front attendant
to this surface low will move eastward across the OH Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast through the day, reaching the Atlantic
Coast by late this evening. Low-level moisture return ahead of the
front will likely remain too meager to support surface-based storms,
although there may be just enough elevated instability to result
in charge separation and isolated lightning flashes.
...Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of
the period along and just ahead of the cold front across parts
of the Southeast. This convection should quickly weaken through
the morning as it becomes increasingly displaced to the south of
large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low, and as
low-level winds gradually diminish. The cold front will continue
southeastward across this region later this afternoon, but poor
mid-level lapse rates and minimal large-scale ascent should limit
the potential for thunderstorms with eastward extent.
...California... An intense surface low moving onshore along the
OR/CA border will gradually fill today as a large-scale upper
low slowly weakens over the West Coast. Isolated thunderstorms
may form in a post-frontal regime beneath this upper low across
parts of CA as cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates
will be present. Lift associated with a westerly mid-level jet may
focus thunderstorm activity over parts of central CA. Regardless,
instability and shear are expected to remain quite weak.
...Southwest to the Southern Plains... Persistent southwesterly
flow aloft will encourage a modest increase in low and mid-level
moisture across parts of the Southwest late tonight. The potential
for lightning across southern AZ appears too low to include a
general thunderstorm area at this time.
Similarly, some low-level moisture return above a near-surface
stable layer is also forecast across parts of the southern Plains
late tonight as a southerly low-level jet modestly strengthens.
While an elevated thunderstorm or two cannot be completely ruled out,
the probability of occurrence appears too conditional to include
an area for now.
..Gleason/Nauslar.. 11/27/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241
AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND A SMALL PORTION OF ADJACENT SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY... Limited risk for gusty/damaging winds may affect
parts of southwestern Arizona Thursday afternoon.
...Synopsis... As a northeastern U.S. upper low vacates New England
early in the period, a large ridge will affect the central and
eastern U.S., ahead of a large trough over the West. This trough
will begin a slow eastward advance late in the period, as short-wave
energy rotates around the base of the trough, toward/into the Desert
Southwest overnight.
At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail east of
the Rockies, while a cold frontal surge impacts southern
California/Arizona/Utah during the second half of the period.
...Southwestern AZ and a small portion of adjacent CA... A slower
advance of the upper short-wave trough -- and associated surface
low/front -- is indicated, as compared to what was anticipated
earlier. As such, with the front not interacting with the relatively
moist low-level airmass expected near and east of the lower Colorado
Valley until after peak heating, severe weather appears less likely.
Still, with showers and a few thunderstorms expected to evolve/spread
across southwestern Arizona during the evening, a few instances of
stronger, convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur, and thus will
maintain MRGL risk/5% wind probability across this region.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Goss.. 11/27/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A highly amplified pattern will continue over
the CONUS with large upper-level troughs over the West and
East Coasts. Significant precipitation has occurred over much of
California with more precipitation expected today. Additionally, as
the West Coast trough amplifies, the subtropical stream will extend
northward with widespread precipitation across eastern Arizona, most
of New Mexico, and onto the southern Plains through tonight. Locally
elevated conditions may be possible across portions of central and
south Texas as dry/breezy post-frontal conditions develop.
..Nauslar.. 11/27/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A large, deep upper-level trough will remain over
the West Coast on Thursday with widespread precipitation expected
over the Desert Southwest, Four Corners region, and southern
Plains. Given the observed and forecast precipitation, the fire
weather threat will be non existent across the CONUS on Thursday
and significantly reduced going forward.
..Nauslar.. 11/27/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Do not drink coffee in early a.m. It will keep you awake until noon.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
