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LU9DCE > ALERT 23.07.19 07:01z 165 Lines 8970 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28876_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 23 07
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190723/0700Z 28876@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246
AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY... Numerous thunderstorms with a few damaging wind
gusts are possible Tuesday mainly across the central and eastern
Carolinas. Other storms with isolated downburst winds are possible
over central and southern Arizona and a portion of the northern
Rockies.
...Synopsis...
Eastern U.S. upper trough is in the process of amplification and will
move only slowly east today. Farther west the upper ridge will remain
anchored near the Four Corners, while a shortwave trough moves into
the Pacific northwest. By 12Z today a cold front will be situated
from the southern New England coast, southwest through the southern
Appalachians to south Texas. This boundary will advance southeast,
reaching the coastal Carolinas late Tuesday night.
...Central through eastern Carolinas...
Diabatic warming of a moist boundary layer with low 70s F dewpoints
in warm sector will result in moderate instability this afternoon
with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep layer winds will undergo a modest
increase as the upper trough amplifies, but should remain largely
parallel to developing convective lines. Storms should redevelop
along pre-frontal consolidated outflow boundaries. While mid-level
lapse rates are weak, steepening low-level lapse rates should
promote some risk for isolated strong to damaging wind gusts as
storms evolve into line segments.
...Central through southern Arizona...
Easterly winds along the southern periphery of an area of high
pressure centered over the Four Corners region will once again
promote westward movement of storms off the higher terrain into
the lower desert valleys. Deeply mixed boundary layers with steep
low-level lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will
promote some risk for downburst winds from late afternoon through
mid evening.
...Northern Rockies...
Vorticity maxima rotating around the Great Basin upper ridge
and heating over the higher terrain should promote a few storms
developing over the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening
where deeply mixed boundary layers will support a risk for
isolated downburst winds. Storms may also occur along a cold
front accompanying the shortwave trough into the Pacific Northwest
from eastern WA into northern ID within a more strongly sheared
environment. However, this activity may not occur until late in the
period when instability will be at a minimum, and the near surface
layer will be more stable. Nevertheless, a few storms could produce
locally strong wind gusts.
..Dial/Bentley.. 07/23/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday
across the western Dakotas, far eastern Montana and extreme
northeast Wyoming.
...Synopsis... A compact upper trough will gradually evolve into a
closed low while lifting northeast/east across the southern Canadian
Rockies, with stronger mid-level flow developing across the northern
Plains during the day. Upper-level high pressure centered over
the southwest U.S. will move little, and an upper-level trough
over the eastern U.S. will approach the mid-Atlantic/New England
coast late Wednesday. A cold front from north FL to south TX will
move slowly south, while a cold front moves across the northern
Rockies and Plains.
...Northern Plains... Height falls associated with the upper
trough will develop across the far northern Rockies and adjacent
plains late Wednesday as a surface cold front and pre-frontal trough
move across MT and the western Dakotas. Surface dew points should
range from the upper 50s to lower 60s, and steep mid-level lapse
rates will contribute to pockets of moderate buoyancy by afternoon,
but also notable CINH. Mid-level westerly flow of 25-35 kts and
low-level southeasterly winds will result in ample shear (30-40 kts)
for organized storms. Current thinking is for isolated storms to
develop late afternoon/early evening along the pre-frontal trough
and cold front as modest large scale forcing and diurnal heating
combine to reduce inhibition. The environment will be favorable
for a couple supercell storms with large hail, and severe gusts
will also be possible given very large sub-cloud temperature-dew
point spreads. Storms may continue into the late evening aided by
a nocturnally intensifying low-level jet and weak warm advection.
Higher severe probabilities may ultimately be warranted if confidence
in greater storm coverage increases.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Bunting.. 07/23/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN
OREGON...AND NORTHWEST NEVADA...
...Synopsis... An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will
overspread the Pacific Northwest today with increasing mid-level
flow ahead of this trough. Deep mixing and some downslope flow
in northern California, southern Oregon, and northwest Nevada may
lead to critical fire weather conditions. In addition, isolated
dry thunderstorms are possible from northern Nevada into southeast
Oregon and southern Idaho.
...Northeast California, southern Oregon, and northwest Nevada...
Southwesterly downslope flow of 20 to 30 mph is expected to develop
during the afternoon hours. Relative humidity is expected to be in
the 12 to 20 percent range in this area. Expected convection and
associated cloud cover may keep relative humidity above 15 percent
in northwest Nevada, so this area is only in an elevated delineation
despite similarly strong 20 to 25 mph surface winds as farther north.
...Dry thunderstorms in Northern Nevada, southwest Idaho, and
eastern Oregon... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along
a cold front in western Nevada and southern Oregon and move quickly
northeastward through the afternoon and evening. These storms will
form in an environment with PWAT values around 0.75", forward speed
of 35 to 40 mph, and cloud bases above 10kft. Therefore, these storms
are expected to drop very little rainfall in any one area and thus
they will pose a threat for lightning starts. In addition, strong
surface winds in the wake of this front may cause any lightning
starts to quickly spread.
..Bentley.. 07/23/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO...
...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough will overspread
a belt of enhanced flow over the northern Great Basin and northern
Rockies. This may lead to elevated fire weather conditions in
northern Montana and possibly critical conditions in the Snake
River valley in Idaho.
...the Snake River Valley in Idaho... Deep mixing will transport
stronger mid-level winds toward the surface in southern Idaho with a
belt of enhanced surface winds within the Snake River Valley. Winds
in this area are expected to be in the 20 to 25 mph range with
relative humidity less than 15 percent yielding critical fire
weather conditions.
...northern Montana... Strong downslope flow is expected to develop
in northern Montana during the afternoon hours with wind speeds
as high as 30 to 40 mph. In addition, the drying effect of these
surface winds will cause relative humidity to drop into the 18
to 25 percent range. If surface relative humidity is a bit lower
than currently forecast, a critical fire weather area may need to
be added in this region to cover the threat, especially given the
expected strength of the winds.
..Bentley.. 07/23/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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