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LU9DCE > ALERT 21.07.19 07:02z 156 Lines 8725 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28803_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 21 07
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<SV1CMG<ON0AR<VE2PKT<
N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190721/0701Z 28803@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249
AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts
and isolated hail are possible from the central Plains eastward
into the Lower Missouri Valley today.
...Central Plains...Lower MO Valley... Recent surface analysis
places a low near the CO/KS/OK border intersection. A composite
boundary/stationary front extends northeastward from this low across
KS to another low near the KS/NE/MO border intersection. Ongoing
convective line across MO has modified the boundary across northern
MO, pushing it southward into central MO. MCV associated with
ongoing showers and thunderstorms across southeast CO and western
KS is expected to track northeastward along or just north of this
stationary front early this morning and likely play a role in
convective development this afternoon. Poor performance within the
guidance of convectively induced, meso-beta scale features suggests
its evolution is uncertain. Current expectation is for the MCV to
drift northeastward early this morning before then turning more
eastward in response to the shortwave trough dropping through the
northern Plains. Thunderstorm development is then anticipated
along the southern periphery of this MCV across northeast KS and
southeast NE. Previously mentioned stationary front as well as
modified outflow may also be in this area, providing additional
foci for convective initiation.
The air mass where this convective initiation is expected to occur
will be warm (temperatures in the 90s), very moist (dewpoints
in the low to mid 70s), and strongly buoyant (MLCAPE over 2500
J/kg). As a result, strong updrafts are anticipated. Vertical
shear will be modest, so the initial development will likely become
outflow-dominant quickly, with subsequent development anticipated on
the resulting cold pool. Strong wind gusts are the primary severe
threat but some hail is possible with the early development.
Presence of several surface boundaries suggests there is a low
probability tornado threat as well.
...Mid MS and OH Valleys... Weak surface convergence along a
slow-moving cold front amidst very warm and moist conditions is
expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms from the
mid MS Valley across the OH Valley. Vertical shear will be very
weak, limiting storm organization and longevity. Even so, a few
water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts are possible.
...Maine... A subtle speed max/low-amplitude shortwave trough
is currently moving into the Lower Great Lakes. Lift associated
with this shortwave is likely contributing to the areas of light
reflectivity from Lake Ontario southward into north-central PA. This
shortwave is expected to continue northeastward, reaching Maine later
this morning. Modest theta-e advection is expected ahead of this
shortwave, contributing to enough instability for thunderstorms. A
few severe storms are probable, with strong wind gusts as the
primary threat. Some isolated large hail is also possible.
...Central High Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to initially
develop across the higher terrain before moving out into the moist
post-frontal air mass across the region. Easterly/northeasterly
low-level flow beneath the northwesterly flow aloft will contribute
to moderate vertical shear (highest across northern portions of
the region) and the potential for a few stronger, more organized
storms capable of strong wind gusts and isolated hail.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 07/21/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257
AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND STATES...
...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Ohio
and Tennessee Valley region into the Mid-Atlantic states and southern
New England Monday and Monday night.
...Synopsis... Continued amplification of the mid/upper-level
flow is expected Monday with a pronounced trough extending
from the Great Lakes southward into the Tennessee Valley region.
An upper-level anticyclone will remain anchored in the vicinity of
the Four Corners region throughout the day. A surface cold front
will extend southwest from coastal sections of southern New England
through the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region and into central TX late
Monday afternoon. A diffuse low will lift northeast along the front
from northern VA across coastal southern New England Monday night.
...Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic west to the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley region... Substantial cloud cover/on-going showers and
thunderstorms are expected Monday morning near the surface front
across the OH/TN Valley region. Nevertheless, diurnal heating of
a very moist air mass south of the front (upper 60s to locally mid
70s dew points) will result in moderate instability west of the
Appalachians and pockets of strong instability closer to the coast.
Modest strengthening of low/mid-level wind fields will occur as the
upper trough amplifies, resulting in 30-35 kts of deep-layer shear
near the front from northern VA/eastern PA northeast into southern
New England, with 20-25 kts farther southwest. Organized multicell
thunderstorms developing along the front and moving off the higher
terrain will have the potential to produce isolated damaging
gusts given steep low-level lapse rates and PW values in excess of
1.75 inches.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5%
- Marginal Hail: <5% - None
..Bunting.. 07/21/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge is building over the western
CONUS today which will expand hot and dry conditions northward
into Oregon and Idaho. However, this will also continue weak flow
across most of the region which should limit the overall fire weather
concern. Localized elevated conditions may be possible in southern
Nevada due to weak downslope flow from a mid-level impulse moving
through the area, but winds will be too marginal to add an elevated
fire weather area.
..Bentley.. 07/21/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will start to shift eastward
on Monday with some increasing mid-level southwesterly flow on
the western periphery of the ridge. This will overspread 30 to
40 knot mid-level flow from northern California into the Pacific
Northwest. Some of these stronger winds are expected to mix toward
the surface, especially where downslope flow is maximized in the lee
of the Sierras. The two primary areas with the greatest chance for
elevated conditions will be from northeast California northeastward
into southeast Oregon and in west central Nevada. Some locally
critical conditions may be possible in west-central Nevada, but
the risk area is too localized at this time to draw a threat area.
In addition, some dry lightning is possible from northern California
northeastward to near the Continental Divide in eastern Idaho/western
Montana. Storms appear to be more isolated and perhaps a bit more
wet in CA/OR and are expected to be more widespread and dry in the
northern Rockies. No dry thunderstorm area has been drawn at this
time, but trends will continue to be monitored to see if an area
needs to be added for some or all of this region in future outlooks.
..Bentley.. 07/21/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Excellent time to become a missing person.
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