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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.07.19 07:02z 239 Lines 13713 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28562_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 15 07
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0OVN<DB0GOS<ON0AR<VE2PKT<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190715/0701Z 28562@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258
AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging
wind, and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon
into this evening across portions of the Upper Midwest, Upper Great
Lakes, and also the northern and central High Plains. Some tornado
and damaging wind threat will persist with the remnants of Barry
across the lower and mid Mississippi Valley.
...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes... Convection may be ongoing
at the start of the period this morning across portions of WI and
the U.P of MI. Some rejuvenation of this activity is possible later
today as it spreads into lower MI, where moderate instability/shear
will support some threat for damaging wind and hail. Meanwhile,
as a vigorous shortwave trough moves eastward across the southern
Canadian Prairies, scattered thunderstorm development is possible
across central/northern MN along a surface trough, and also across
northern WI within a weakly capped environment, where a remnant
outflow boundary may be left over from earlier convection. Moderate
to strong instability and effective shear of 25-35 kt will support
organized multicell clusters and perhaps a few supercells, with
a corresponding threat of large hail and damaging wind. Low-level
shear is forecast to remain relatively modest, but some conditional
tornado threat will be present should any supercells develop,
especially in the vicinity of any remnant outflow boundaries. Some
upscale growth is possible into this evening, spreading a damaging
wind threat into southern MN and central/southern WI.
...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains...
An upper trough will remain in place across the Northwest into the
northern High Plains today. The timing of individual shortwaves
moving through the mean trough position remains somewhat uncertain,
but midlevel flow will remain sufficient to support effective
shear of 40-50 kt. Given the potential for at least moderate
destabilization, organized convection is expected to develop
this afternoon, with initiation anticipated on the higher terrain
before storms spread eastward. Organized clusters and perhaps a few
supercells will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. Some
upscale growth is possible into the evening, resulting in a severe
wind threat spreading eastward into a larger part of western SD/NE.
...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley... The remnant circulation of Barry
should continue to weaken today, though some enhancement to low-level
wind fields will persist across portions of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor across the region,
but there is potential for at least some heating/destabilization
later today. Shear will be sufficient to support a tornado or two
and perhaps locally damaging wind gusts with the strongest convection
east of the remnant circulation through much of the period.
..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/15/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203
AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across
the northern High Plains with a few strong storms possible extending
into the upper Mississippi Valley. Strong storms may also be noted
with the remnants of Barry.
...Northern High Plains to the Upper MS Valley...
Seasonally strong mid-high level flow is forecast to extend across
the northwestern US-northern Plains-Great Lakes region into the
day2 period. Latest data suggests remnants of late day1 convection
that develops across the High Plains will progress into portions of
eastern SD/NE by 16/12z. While a meaningful disturbance may not be
noted with this activity, if an MCV evolves there is some concern
strong convection could redevelop downstream across southern MN into
WI by afternoon. Have extended 5% severe probs into the upper MS
Valley to account for this possible scenario. If a well-defined MCV
is evident at sunrise Tuesday, higher severe probs may be warranted.
More confidence exists farther west regarding a notable short-wave
trough that is forecast to progress into western MT-eastern ID
by 17/00z. 60kt 500mb speed max is expected to translate across
northern WY into southeast MT during the evening and this feature
should encourage organized deep convection. Additionally, surface
low is expected to develop over central WY during the afternoon
which should maintain an easterly component to boundary-layer
flow across the Plains into southern MT. Convection that develops
off the higher terrain will likely grow upscale as it encounters
higher-PW air mass and a more favorable LLJ that should strengthen
after dark. Initial activity should be supercellular in nature
with subsequent maturation and clustering expected to produce a
possible MCS downstream over SD during the overnight hours.
...Remnants of Barry...
Remnants of Barry are forecast to lift slowly north-northeast across
AR into MO by Tuesday before shifting into the OH Valley mid week.
Buoyancy will continue to be limited with this system as significant
clouds/precip will prevent strong boundary-layer heating. Even
so, veered LLJ is forecast to extend across northeast LA-western
TN/KY-southern IN. There is some concern that a few weak supercells
will develop along this corridor of stronger low-level shear. Will
extend severe probs into the day2 period to account for a marginal
tornado/wind threat.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Darrow.. 07/15/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146
AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Some severe threat will exist with convection that
develops across the upper Mississippi Valley and over the northern
High Plains.
...Upper MS Valley...
Seasonally strong mid-level speed max is forecast to translate across
WY into the Dakotas early in the period before ejecting into MN by
late Wednesday afternoon. An MCS is expected to evolve across the
Dakotas late day2 and should be ongoing at sunrise along the nose
of a LLJ that is expected to shift into southern MN later in the
day. Much of this early-day activity should be elevated but outflow
may ultimately dictate new development where boundary-layer heating
is maximized. Will introduce 5% severe probs across the upper MS
Valley to account for afternoon intensification along leading edge
of expected MCS. This scenario is conditional and predicated on
substantial convective overturning stabilizing much of northern
MN. If thunderstorm activity is substantially weaker then severe
probs may need to be extended to near the international border as
large-scale forcing ahead of short-wave trough will extend into
southern Canada.
...Northern High Plains...
Trailing cold front will extend across central NE into central WY by
late afternoon. Easterly boundary-layer flow should nudge higher-PW
air mass across the High Plains toward the northern Laramie range.
Strong surface heating across WY favors isolated thunderstorm
development within a sheared regime supportive of supercells. This
activity should spread toward the Black Hills by early evening.
..Darrow.. 07/15/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough, traversing the
Pacific Northwest, will gradually amplify across the northwest
CONUS throughout the period. Stronger flow aloft associated with
the mid-level shortwave trough may mix down to the surface via a
deep boundary layer across far northern portions of the Great Basin
into the northern Rockies region. As such, dry, breezy conditions
may support wildfire spread potential in this area. Deep-layer
ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave trough will also
promote isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development,
with a few dry strikes possible.
Across central California, dry and breezy northerly surface flow
will result from a pressure gradient, fostered by a surface high
over the Sierra, across portions of the southern Coast Ranges late
in the period.
...Far northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... 15-20 mph
sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will coincide with
10-20% RH across portions of the Snake River Plain and Great Divine
Basin by afternoon peak heating, where elevated delineations were
maintained. In addition, potentially widespread elevated surface
wind/RH conditions may also prevail across much of central Nevada,
but the northward displacement of upper-level support renders
low enough confidence to preclude an elevated area at this time,
though an elevated delineation may be needed in later outlooks
pending consistency in model guidance.
As deep-layer ascent associated with the aforementioned mid-level
shortwave trough overspreads a destabilizing air mass, isolated to
potentially scattered thunderstorms will initiate across eastern
portions of the Snake River Plain and along the windward side of the
Absaroka and Wind River ranges with the aid of diurnal upslope flow.
These storms will form atop a dry sub-cloud layer extending up
to 500 mb, amidst 0.50-0.75 inch precipitable water values. Given
adequate steering flow to promote faster moving storms, isolated
dry strikes are possible, given that fuels have recently become
marginally supportive of wildfire spread.
...Parts of southern California... Surface RH values of 10-20%
will be common by late afternoon across portions of central
California, with surface northerly winds expected to remain
below elevated criteria across the San Joaquin Valley, given
a modest pressure gradient in place. By early evening, locally
stronger north-northeasterly offshore flow, (up to 20-30 mph)
may become established in terrain favored areas of the Santa Ynez
Mountains. While fuels will be somewhat marginal for fire spread,
and despite the gradual recovery in RH expected through the evening,
the stronger downslope winds may compensate to support a few hours
of conditions favorable for fire spread, hence the maintenance of
an elevated delineation in this area.
..Squitieri.. 07/15/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will continue to
gradually translate east/amplify across the western CONUS on
Day 2/Tuesday. Stronger flow aloft will overspread a deeply-mixed
boundary layer, which in turn will support dry and windy conditions
across much of the Great Basin, where conditions will favor wildfire
spread potential provided receptive fuels to fire spread.
...Great Basin... By afternoon peak heating, the stronger flow
aloft will efficiently mix to the surface to sustain 15-25 mph
west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-20% RH across much of the
area. An elevated delineation was issued where the greatest overlap
in elevated to critical surface wind/RH conditions and receptive
fuels exists. Patchy receptive fuels, and recent accumulated rainfall
from multiple days of scattered showers/thunderstorms serves as the
primary mitigating factor for a critical delineation. Still, at least
localized critical wind/RH conditions may be expected across much
of southeast Nevada into far northwest Arizona and southwest Utah.
Locally elevated conditions may also occur farther south into
central Arizona, but the lack of upper-level support across this
area to foster a more widespread 15+ mph wind field precludes an
elevated delineation at this time.
...Far northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... Deep-layer
ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave trough will promote
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across much of the
area. Currently, the latest model guidance suggests faster moving
storms overspreading a deep sub-cloud layer may occur around the
Idaho/Wyoming border. However, given marginally receptive fuels
and recent accumulated rainfall, an isolated dry thunderstorm
delineation has been withheld at this time.
..Squitieri.. 07/15/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Since I hurt my pendulum My life is all erratic. My parrot, who was cordial,
Is now transmitting static. The carpet died, a palm collapsed, The cat
keeps doing poo. The only thing that keeps me sane Is talking to my shoe.
-- My Shoe
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