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LU9DCE > ALERT 30.05.19 07:01z 177 Lines 10192 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25710_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 30 05
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190530/0701Z 25710@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Thu May 30 2019
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS WELL AS PARTS OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO/WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts,
hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible from a portion of the
Ohio Valley to the Middle Atlantic Thursday. Severe thunderstorms
are also possible from eastern New Mexico/the southern High Plains
into central and southwest Texas.
...Synopsis... An upper low initially centered over Iowa,
and associated troughing, is forecast to advance east-southeast
across the mid Mississippi Valley through the day, and into the
Midwest/Ohio Valley with time, while a weaker/more diffuse lead
disturbance shifts across the Midwest and into the Northeast.
Farther west, an upper low is forecast to drift southward across
northern California. A weaker perturbation within the broader
cyclonic flow around this low is forecast to cross northern Mexico
and the Desert Southwest -- reaching eastern New Mexico and western
Texas by evening.
At the surface, a weak front will linger from the mid Atlantic
region westward across the Ohio Valley region, with a frontal wave
forecast to advance roughly along the Mason/Dixon line through the
day, and then off the mid Atlantic Coast by evening. Meanwhile,
the trailing portion of the Midwestern baroclinic zone is forecast
to stall from southern Texas westward across the northern Mexico/Rio
Grande Valley area and linger there through the period.
...Eastern New Mexico into the western half of Texas, and vicinity...
As the frontal zone sags southward, remnant moisture will remain
across the Rio Grande Valley area and into southeastern New Mexico,
within easterly post-frontal flow. As diurnal heating contributes to
moderate destabilization, scattered storms are forecast to develop
from southeast New Mexico eastward across the Transpecos region,
and over adjacent northern Mexico, both near the front, as well as
in upslope-favored areas north of the boundary.
With moderate westerly flow atop the low-level easterlies,
shear supportive of organized/rotating storms is expected --
which should result in risk for hail and/or damaging winds with
the developing storms. More isolated convection, within a less
unstable environment, is forecast to develop in the upslope flow
regime northward across eastern New Mexico and possible into far
southeastern Colorado. Local wind damage and hail will be possible
with a couple of the stronger cells.
As a southeasterly low-level jet develops during the evening --
allowing a strong eastward propagation component to develop, risk
for upscale growth into one or more fast-moving clusters is evident,
which may cross the SLGT risk area through the evening and into the
overnight hours, accompanied by some risk for locally damaging winds.
...Parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys eastward to the mid
Atlantic region... As diurnal heating commences in the vicinity
of the lingering cold front, convective development is expected to
begin -- possibly by late morning -- from portions of the Tennessee
and upper Ohio Valleys into the central Appalachians as the
aforementioned lead perturbation advances quickly eastward across
the region. With fast westerly flow throughout the troposphere,
storms should spread quickly eastward, both as bands/clusters as
well as a few isolated -- possibly rotating -- storms. Along with
risk for hail, damaging winds are expected locally. Additionally,
a weak low expected to cross the region may provide locally backed
low-level winds over eastern portions of the risk area by afternoon,
possibly providing local enhancement to the otherwise limited tornado
risk. Greatest tornado threat appears to exist over southeastern
Pennsylvania, parts of northern and eastern Maryland, and into
southern New Jersey/northern Delaware later in the afternoon.
Severe risk should gradually diminish into the evening, as storms
weaken diurnally and gradually move offshore.
..Goss/Squitieri.. 05/30/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CDT Thu May 30 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER MICHIGAN....
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon and evening across the Mid-Atlantic States, and the Upper
Midwest and Lower Michigan.
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move through
TN Valley early Friday, continuing southeastward and eventually
moving off the Carolina coast late Friday night/early Saturday
morning. Surface low associated with this system will move just ahead
of it while an attendant cold front pushes across the Piedmont. A
cold front is also expected to push southward across the northern
Plains and upper MS Valley, encouraged by the quick southeastward
progress of a low-amplitude shortwave trough through Ontario.
Farther west, upper ridging will build northwestward from the
southern High Plains through the central Rockies and a upper low
will slowly drift southward across central and southern CA.
...Mid-Atlantic... Guidance has trended slower with the progression
of the shortwave trough, delaying its arrival over western portions
of Mid-Atlantic states until 21Z. Guidance has also trended deeper
and stronger, with 50 kt of 500 mb flow now expected to accompany
the system. Diurnal heating ahead of this shortwave and its
attendant cold front will promote steep low-level lapse rates and
air mass destabilization. Low-level winds will be weak and veered,
but strong flow aloft will still result in enough vertical shear
for occasional storm organization. A predominantly multicell mode is
anticipated but a few supercells are also possible. Primary severe
threat is damaging downburst winds.
...Upper Midwest/Lower MI... Temperatures will likely reach the
low 80s across portions of southern MN and central/southern WI as
strong diurnal heating and westerly/southwesterly surface winds
promote deep boundary layer mixing. Modest moisture advection is
also anticipated, helping to offset some of the mixing and keep
dewpoints in the low 60s. Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints are
expected across lower MI but slightly cooler mid-level temperatures
will still promote modest instability.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and just ahead of the
approaching cold front Friday afternoon. Shear and instability are
supportive of a few strong to severe storms. Damaging wind gusts
are the primary severe threat.
...Southern High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms are possible
Friday afternoon along the southern portion of the lee troughing
extending the length of the High Plains. Uncertainty regarding
coverage and intensity currently results in severe probability less
than 5%.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Mosier.. 05/30/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will flatten across the
southeastern CONUS, with a surface low-pressure trough traversing
the area during the afternoon hours. Hot, dry conditions will
prevail, with breezy westerly flow expected with the passage of the
aforementioned surface low-pressure trough. Large scale ridging
will also be in place across the northwest CONUS, with a surface
low-pressure trough moving across Saskatchewan and Manitoba,
encouraging dry, westerly flow across the northern Rockies/High
Plains regions.
...Portions of eastern Georgia into the western Carolinas...
By peak heating of the afternoon, temperatures above 90F,
coincident with 25-35% RH will be in place across eastern
Georgia into the western/central Carolinas. The passage of the
aforementioned surface low-pressure trough will also encourage 15
mph southwesterly sustained surface winds. Given the relatively
long duration of lacking appreciable precipitation accumulation,
fuels are dry enough to support wildfire spread. An elevated
area was delineated where wildfire conditions will be a concern,
mainly during the afternoon hours. A few showers and thunderstorms
are possible in northern portions of South Carolina into North
Carolina, but the sparse nature of the precipitation suggests that
most receptive fuels in these areas should remain supportive of
fire spread, hence the inclusion of North Carolina in the elevated
delineation, where seasonal ERCs well exceeding the 95th percentile
should overcompensate for the threat of diurnal precipitation.
...Northern High Plains... With the northern passage of the surface
low-pressure trough, dry continental air from the lee of the northern
Rockies will overspread areas of northeast Montana into northwest
North Dakota, with surface RH as low as 15-20% possible. Breezy
conditions are expected, with surface southwesterly sustained wind
speeds reaching the 15 mph mark, hence an elevated delineation,
as marginally dry fuels may support some threat for wildfire growth.
..Squitieri.. 05/30/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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The end of the world will occur at 3:00 p.m., this Friday, with symposium
to follow.
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