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LU9DCE > ALERT 29.05.19 07:02z 368 Lines 18618 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 29 05
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Sent: 190529/0701Z 25619@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 285 SEVERE TSTM TX 290655Z - 291500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 AM CDT Wed
May 29 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Texas
* Effective this Wednesday morning from 155 AM until 1000 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase and expand
east/northeastward from the Permian Basin toward the Lower Rolling
Plains and northern Edwards Plateau. Large hail with supercells
should be the most common concern, although some potential for
near-surface-based storms could increase toward sunrise (and after)
with damaging wind potential and perhaps a low tornado risk.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north of Fort
Stockton TX to 45 miles northeast of Abilene TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 284...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24025.
...Guyer
WW 284 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 290640Z - 291100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 AM CDT Wed
May 29 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Arkansas
Eastern Oklahoma
* Effective this Wednesday morning from 140 AM until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Semi-organized/sustained clusters of storms will
continue to move east-northeastward across the region overnight,
in association with a moist air mass and strong low/mid-level jet.
Isolated severe hail will be a possibility, and damaging winds
could also occur. A brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south of
Muskogee OK to 35 miles east southeast of Fayetteville AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion
vector 24035.
...Guyer
WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0285 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0284 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0284 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CNU TO
30 ENE MKC TO 20 SW OXV.
..BROYLES..05/29/19
ATTN...WFO...DMX...TOP...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC185-290640-
IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WAYNE
MOC025-033-037-079-101-107-117-129-177-290640-
MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CARROLL CASS GRUNDY
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON MERCER
RAY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0282 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 282
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S VPZ TO
25 SSW VPZ TO 10 NW VPZ.
..KERR..05/29/19
ATTN...WFO...LOT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC073-290540-
IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JASPER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ESE PIA TO
35 WSW MMO.
..KERR..05/29/19
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC039-113-290440-
IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE WITT MCLEAN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE SPS TO
35 SSW SPS TO 5 E FSI.
PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED
IN TIME, BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..KERR..05/29/19
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 278
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC033-067-290300-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTON JEFFERSON
TXC009-077-337-485-290300-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER CLAY MONTAGUE WICHITA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 276
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E FSI TO
25 W MHK.
PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED
IN TIME, BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..KERR..05/29/19
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 276
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC015-017-019-035-049-073-079-115-173-191-290300-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY
ELK GREENWOOD HARVEY MARION
SEDGWICK SUMNER
OKC027-049-051-071-081-083-087-103-109-119-125-137-290300-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEVELAND GARVIN GRADY KAY
LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN NOBLE
OKLAHOMA PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE STEPHENS
MD 0873 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0873 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019
Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...northwest Arkansas...far
southern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 290607Z - 290800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms developing within the low-level jet axis may produce
marginally severe hail over the next few hours across portions of
the mid-Missouri Valley. A localized severe wind gust or tornado
also cannot be ruled out. The sparse nature of the severe threat
precludes a WW issuance at this time.
DISCUSSION...Multicellular convection has developed within the
past few hours across eastern Oklahoma and far western Arkansas.
Low-level forcing for ascent is provided by isentropic lift
associated with a mature, nocturnal low-level jet, with upper-level
support generated by a small, mid-level impulse embedded within the
larger scale cyclonic flow, which is traversing the area. While
the boundary layer has begun to cool/stabilize, overrunning of
moisture-rich, higher theta-e air above the boundary layer within
the low-level jet axis may encourage convective cluster maintenance
over the next few hours. While lapse rates are not overall steep,
and while convection is expected to be mainly elevated, strong
deep-layer, and relatively lower-level shear (above the boundary
layer) may encourage mid-level rotation in the stronger updrafts,
which may promote isolated large hail development. In addition,
a few of the stronger cores experiencing water/graupel loading may
also produce a couple damaging wind gusts. Given the strong low-level
speed/directional shear in place, any storms that can manage to tap
into surface-based parcels may briefly acquire transient low-level
rotation and as such, a tornado cannot be ruled out.
Nonetheless, the hail threat is expected to be rather sparse,
and a WW issuance is not likely.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/29/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34729658 35669556 36649426 36779316 36549217 35949197
35179301 34489401 34359545 34729658
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN
OK 1150 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains
from midday into the overnight...
* LOCATIONS... Northern Missouri West-central Illinois Far southern
Iowa Northeast Kansas
* HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A
few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size
* SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing large hail,
damaging wind and tornadoes are likely this afternoon into tonight
from the central Plains eastward to the Midwest. Severe storms
with large hail, damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes are also
expected across the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast States this
afternoon and evening.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means
that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the
next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room
on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105
AM CDT Wed May 29 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS...AND ALSO FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO EASTWARD
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected from portions
of the southern Plains through the Ozarks, Ohio Valley and Middle
Atlantic States Wednesday.
...Synopsis... Slow eastward advance of an upper trough is expected
across the Plains states today, while troughing lingers farther west
as an upper low persists near the Pacific Northwest. Farther east,
fast westerly flow will continue across the Northeast, while upper
ridging prevails over the southeast.
At the surface, a frontal zone will linger from the mid Atlantic
region across the Ohio Valley vicinity, while western fringes of
the front shift southeastward across the southern Plains through
the end of the period.
...The southern Plains northeast into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
A rather complex convective evolution is expected across this
region today, with multiple rounds of storms expected in some areas.
Initial severe risks at the start of the period may exist over the
mid Mississippi Valley (with ongoing/gradually diminishing storms),
and across parts of western Texas (with a second area of ongoing
convection).
Both of these ongoing convective areas will influence severe
weather risk. With the mid Mississippi Valley convection, questions
exist regarding details of the airmass recovery across parts of the
Missouri/Illinois vicinity. With the Texas storms, speed/location
of the storms through mid morning will define the western fringe
of the higher severe risk expected to evolve by afternoon.
At this time, it appears that Texas storms will move quickly
northeastward across north Texas through the morning, central and
eastern Oklahoma through midday/early afternoon, and then across
the Ozarks through the rest of the afternoon. Severe risk will
accompany this convection, with all severe hazards possible locally.
On the southern and eastern fringe of this convective cluster,
more isolated storms are expected, within what is likely to be a
thermodynamic and kinematic environment favorable for supercells.
Given the more cellular storm mode expected, an enhanced risk
for tornado potential appears to exist within a corridor from
north-central Texas northeast across southeastern Oklahoma and into
western Arkansas and possibly as far north as the Missouri Ozarks.
Additionally, very large hail will be possible, along with locally
damaging winds.
Farther east into the Midwest, storm development is expected to
occur in the vicinity of the earlier-day remnant convection, with
locally damaging winds and hail possible.
Convection will likely continue into the evening and into the
overnight hours, possibly evolving into a loosely organized band
from storms across eastern portions of the risk area, as the cold
front advances southeastward into the region. Severe risk will
likely persist well into the overnight hours.
...Upper Ohio Valley east to the mid Atlantic Coast... In the wake
of remnant/early-morning convection, airmass recovery/destabilization
is forecast ahead of a short-wave trough (now centered near
southern Lake Michigan) which will cross Lake Erie and reach
western Pennsylvania by early afternoon. As this feature -- and a
weak/associated surface low -- advances, redevelopment of scattered
thunderstorms is forecast to occur, possibly beginning as early as
midday, across Pennsylvania, and adjacent parts of West Virginia,
Maryland, and northern Virginia.
With the airmass forecast to become moderately unstable, storms
should quickly intensify -- aided by the persistent belt of strong
westerly deep-layer flow across the area. While some tornado risk
is expected -- particularly near/ahead of the weak surface low and
associated warm front, where backed low-level flow will be present,
the greater risks appear to be locally damaging winds, and hail.
Some CAM guidance suggests that storms may grow upscale through the
afternoon, eventually merging into an at least loosely organized
cluster, as it sweeps across eastern portions of the risk area and
off the Atlantic coast during the evening. Should this occur, more
widespread wind risk would likely evolve, and thus have expanded
the ENH risk area slightly, extending it off the mid-Atlantic coast.
Other/more isolated cells are expected farther south across
central Virginia, with convective potential -- and severe risk --
decreasing with southward extent, as indicated by the gradient in
severe probability lines across northern and central Virginia.
..Goss/Squitieri.. 05/29/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246
AM CDT Wed May 29 2019
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST TX...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging
wind gusts are possible across portions of the middle and upper Ohio
Valley on Thursday. Isolated severe thunderstorm are also possible
across southwest Texas.
...Synopsis... Moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft will
likely extend from west TX through middle MS Valley and into the
Northeast early Thursday morning. Convectively augmented shortwave
trough is expected move within this area of stronger upper flow from
its Thursday morning position over the Lower OH Valley to northern
Mid-Atlantic by 00Z Friday. A second shortwave trough will likely
move from the mid MO Valley into the TN Valley in the wake of the
lead wave. Farther west, a weak shortwave trough is expected to move
into the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon while a weakening
upper low drops from the Pacific Northwest into central CA.
...OH Valley...Northern Mid-Atlantic... Showers and thunderstorms
will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period near the
shortwave trough discussed in the synopsis. As this shortwave trough
and attendant surface low continue eastward, gradually increasing
thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. Dewpoints in the mid 60s and
modest diurnal heating will aid in air mass destabilization. Strong
unidirectional wind profiles will result in fast storm motions and
bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts.
...Far West TX...Edwards Plateau... Southeasterly surface winds
and modest moisture advection is expected Thursday afternoon and
evening across portions of far west TX and the Edwards Plateau
south of a stalled cold front. Subtle shortwave trough entering
the region combined with the weak upslope flow will likely result
in scattered thunderstorms, a few of which could be severe. Large
hail is the primary severe threat.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Mosier.. 05/29/2019
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Q: How many Martians does it take to screw in a lightbulb? A: One and
a half.
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